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My forecast for Dolly
Posted: (July 22, 2008 05:31 pm)
Hello, Dolly! Dolly was upgraded at 5 PM to a hurricane and is sporting maximum winds of 75 mph, about 150 miles ESE of the mouth of the Rio Grande. The storm continues to move northwest and its forward momentum has slowed, now down to 10 mph.
There is no some slight change to my thinking from last night or this morning. Given the way the storm has improved its presentation on satellite this afternoon and how the center is aligning itself at the surface and aloft I would not be surprised to see Dolly intensify beyond my initial prediction of 90 mph from yesterday. A Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds is certainly possible and if the storm moves slowly enough and continues a northwest trajectory, it could have enough time over water to become a Category 3 storm before landfall.
Model guidance continues to center around the mouth of the Rio Grande, with various models running within 20-30 miles of the border with the exception of one model on either side of the border. My thinking last night called for South Padre Island for a landfall. Despite last night's shift west to get me to speculate briefly this morning the landfall would be near Matamoros, I do think that the current trajectory will bring the center in somewhere in between the two locations (they are less than 30 miles apart as the crow flies).
Timing for landfall looks to be around noon Central time but is highly dependent on the angle that the storm is travelling as it approaches the coast. A west wobble or nudge could bring the center in a bit sooner whereas a more northward component will keep the center out over water slightly longer and prevent landfall.
Final call for Dolly:
Intensity -- 100 mph
Location -- just north of the mouth of the Rio Grande
When -- Wednesday, around noon CT.
Link to graphics and satellite: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/07/dolly-discussion-2.html
There is no some slight change to my thinking from last night or this morning. Given the way the storm has improved its presentation on satellite this afternoon and how the center is aligning itself at the surface and aloft I would not be surprised to see Dolly intensify beyond my initial prediction of 90 mph from yesterday. A Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds is certainly possible and if the storm moves slowly enough and continues a northwest trajectory, it could have enough time over water to become a Category 3 storm before landfall.
Model guidance continues to center around the mouth of the Rio Grande, with various models running within 20-30 miles of the border with the exception of one model on either side of the border. My thinking last night called for South Padre Island for a landfall. Despite last night's shift west to get me to speculate briefly this morning the landfall would be near Matamoros, I do think that the current trajectory will bring the center in somewhere in between the two locations (they are less than 30 miles apart as the crow flies).
Timing for landfall looks to be around noon Central time but is highly dependent on the angle that the storm is travelling as it approaches the coast. A west wobble or nudge could bring the center in a bit sooner whereas a more northward component will keep the center out over water slightly longer and prevent landfall.
Final call for Dolly:
Intensity -- 100 mph
Location -- just north of the mouth of the Rio Grande
When -- Wednesday, around noon CT.
Link to graphics and satellite: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/07/dolly-discussion-2.html
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