Moderate risk of severe storms/tornados on saturday.

a low over the central plains is moving east and bring with it the chance of tornado from the midwest  into the ohio valley and finally the midatlantic states by saturday. The storm will have various parts that will produce heavy rains (2"-4") from cleveland, OH to Albany, NY. and the chance of some tornadic storms forming in front of the front and with the front saturday afternoon. 

The ridge from the south is creating a blowtorch effect bringing warm air into the mid-atlantic states and a strong WNW flow

with dew points expected to be in the low 70's on saturday

Station ID: KPHL Lat:   39.86 Long:   75.23                                                        
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 29MAY 2008
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc
                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis
   0 05/29 12Z   59     46     238       1    0.01  0.00    556    575    6.1 -16.1 1023.6   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   **** 20.0
   6 05/29 18Z   70     49     265       6    0.00  0.00    557    575    7.2 -17.0 1020.4  26          CLR    185SCT214    FEW      70     58 20.0
  12 05/30 00Z   62     53     230       6    0.00  0.00    559    575   10.1 -14.8 1019.2   1          CLR       CLR       CLR      71     62 20.0
  18 05/30 06Z   52     48     249       4    0.00  0.00    558    576   10.1 -14.4 1021.0   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      62     52 15.8
  24 05/30 12Z   59     51     219       3    0.00  0.00    559    577   10.1 -13.4 1021.5  20          CLR       CLR    348FEW392   58     47 20.0
  30 05/30 18Z   76     59     193       9    0.00  0.00    563    579   11.4 -12.3 1018.6  84          CLR       CLR    338BKN425   76     59 20.0
  36 05/31 00Z   65     56     169      11    0.00  0.00    566    580   14.0 -12.5 1016.2 100       035FEW045 228FEW273 338OVC446   76     65 20.0
  42 05/31 06Z   61     53     203       9    0.00  0.00    567    579   15.2  -9.9 1014.2 100 -RA      CLR    215FEW257 301OVC424   65     61 13.3
  48 05/31 12Z   65     64     196      11    0.08  0.08    568    577   16.4 -10.4 1010.4  88 -TSRA 076FEW106 168SCT268 282BKN389   64     59  0.0
  54 05/31 18Z   77     72     240      12    0.10  0.14    569    575   14.6 -10.2 1007.1  98 -TSRA 049FEW093 146SCT211 323BKN428   80     65  5.4
  60 06/01 00Z   73     71     235       6    0.28  0.26    568    572   14.7 -11.3 1005.4  95 -TSRA 039SCT089 181BKN271 283BKN443   77     73  2.6
  66 06/01 06Z   63     60     277       7    0.02  0.02    564    570   13.2 -13.6 1006.9  58 -RA   068FEW114 148FEW235 298BKN409   73     63  3.1
  72 06/01 12Z   63     58     258       6    0.00  0.00    560    569    9.5 -13.6 1009.9   6          CLR       CLR    349FEW379   63     59  9.0
  78 06/01 18Z   73     60     266      10    0.01  0.01    560    568    8.8 -16.0 1009.4  29 -RA   036SCT052    CLR       CLR      73     64 20.0
  84 06/02 00Z   67     60     237       6    0.00  0.00    560    568   11.5 -16.1 1008.8   5       059FEW072 190FEW244    CLR      75     67 20.0
  90 06/02 06Z   59     58     257       5    0.06  0.07    558    566   10.7 -16.6 1009.3  51 -TSRA 087FEW101 230FEW268 273SCT319   67     59  1.0
  96 06/02 12Z   62     59     309       6    0.01  0.01    558    568    9.9 -15.2 1010.9  10       089FEW104 233FEW269 282FEW315   62     57  4.5
 102 06/02 18Z   74     57     291       7    0.00  0.00    560    569    9.2 -14.5 1010.6  36          CLR       CLR    331SCT399   74     62 20.0
 108 06/03 00Z   66     58     270       5    0.00  0.00    559    569   11.1 -16.2 1010.9 100          CLR    206SCT275 293OVC449   75     66 20.0
 114 06/03 06Z   60     54     272       4    0.00  0.00    558    568   11.0 -14.0 1011.6  92       080FEW096 171BKN271 294BKN404   66     60 20.0
 120 06/03 12Z   63     55     353       7    0.00  0.00    558    569   10.3 -13.2 1013.5  12          CLR       CLR    325FEW380   63     55 20.0
 126 06/03 18Z   75     54     349       8    0.00  0.00    557    569    9.0 -14.3 1013.7   9 -RA      CLR       CLR    356FEW396   75     63 20.0
 132 06/04 00Z   65     54     342       6    0.00  0.00    557    570    8.8 -14.9 1015.1   3       072FEW089    CLR    342FEW385   75     65 20.0
 138 06/04 06Z   53     35       2       5    0.00  0.00    556    570    7.7 -15.4 1017.5   6          CLR       CLR    386FEW425   64     53 20.0
 144 06/04 12Z   54     41      80       2    0.00  0.00    556    573    7.3 -12.8 1020.0  80          CLR       CLR    358BKN432   55     47 20.0
 150 06/04 18Z   67     53     158       7    0.00  0.00    559    575    9.0 -12.1 1018.8 100          CLR    165FEW248 323OVC453   67     55 20.0
 156 06/05 00Z   61     51     157      11    0.00  0.00    565    578   12.3  -9.4 1014.9 100       084FEW110 158SCT216 287OVC442   67     61 20.0
 162 06/05 06Z   59     58     167       6    0.74  0.08    568    579   13.0 -10.8 1013.8 100 -TSRA 048BKN131 133BKN251 314OVC451   61     57  1.3
 168 06/05 12Z   65     61     207      13    0.00  0.00    570    581   17.4 -10.2 1012.7  99 -RA   049BKN099 201FEW267 325OVC451   65     59  3.8
 174 06/05 18Z   80     70     210      11    0.00  0.00    573    584   18.5  -9.8 1011.9 100       048FEW063 238FEW279 292OVC453   80     66 20.0
 180 06/06 00Z   75     69     184      10    0.00  0.00    575    585   18.6 -10.2 1012.5  94          CLR    225SCT280 318BKN429   82     75 13.5

We could be looking at some serious problems with severe weather

especially out in Western, PA extending down to Richmond, VA

I will have total-total #'s, cape, lift indencies,

showalter, etc; tomorrow evening so stay tuned!!

steve