Yesterday's upper level west coast storm system has now hit the southern plains. Frontal boundary stretches from the Texas panhandle northeastward through central Oklahoma and then slicing east through southern Missouri where it then stalls over Kentucky.

First round of heavy rains now hammering away at the already saturated grounds of the "Bluegrass State." The latest radar images (10:00am EST) show moderate to heavy rains falling across Paducah, Owensboro, Hopkinsville and just west of Bowling Green in southern and western Kentucky. Another band of moderate rains have set up east of here moving through the eastern part of the state and into the mountains across Hazard, Jackson and southward into extreme eastern Tennessee.

To the south of this region the area has become very unstable as Gulf and Pacific air have destabilized the atmosphere. Current dewpoints look something like this across the Mississippi River Valley and southern plains .....Jackson, MS 65 ..... Alexandria, LA 64 .... Texarkana, TX 56 .... Dallas TX 64 .... Wichita Falls, TX 61 ... Houston, TX 70 ... Oklahoma City, OK 56.
Now that the sun has risen and some of the low clouds across the area begin to burn off the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable due to daytime heating. Temperatures are already pushing 70 degrees in some locations. This will be the area that we will look for for heavy thunderstorm development later this afternoon and tonight.

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The Storm Prediction Center continues its MODERATE RISK for severe weather across northcentral Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas for this afternoon.....

A SLIGHT RISK for severe weather circles the MODERATE RISK area and stretches from San Antonio, TX northeastward to Nashville, TN and then back around to just south of St. Louis, MO then cutting through central Oklahoma and Texas.


THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT
The high surface instability along with strengthening wind fields will aid in developing severe and perhaps destructive storms this afternoon and tonight across these areas....wind gusts within some of the thunderstorms could reach as high as 70 mph (hurricane force is 74) along with large hail and large, dangerous tornadoes. During the night, the severe weather threat shifts east with the front and moves into northern Louisianna, Arkansas, northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and extreme southwestern Kentucky.


To the north of the severe weather threat across the Ohio River periods of very heavy rains will continue as the stalled out front acts as a focal point. Total rainfall amounts across this area when all is said and done will be from between 3 and 5 inches with isolated amounts to 6. This will cause more FLASH FLOODING problems as well as aggrevate previous flooding problems from the weeks before.


If you live in the Mississippi River Valley, the Ohio Valley or the southern plains states and you own a NOAA weather radio keep it in alert mode. And keep checking in with you local news source for updates on flash flooding and severe weather.

Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches more than likely will be posted later this afternoon for the southern plains states. Flood watches have already been posted for Kentucky and locations along the Ohio River.

I'll continue to update throughout the day.

-CS