These Computer Models missed
Posted: (May 09, 2008 02:00 pm)

Verification
Posted: (May 09, 2008 05:45 pm)

Playing devil's advocate, 1.56" at PHL is not too shabby and still a decent soaking even if the forecast amounts didn't fully verify.

West To East
Posted: (May 09, 2008 02:24 pm)

As I said in another post, it seems that the systems moving primarily west to east underperform when compared to the model projections, particularly the more east you go. So Philly and east often sees much less rainfall than the models indicate. I don't know exactly why, perhaps the mountains take out a lot of the momentum of the storm, or in the South Jersey case crossing the Delaware weakens it. But pretty consistently we have seen much lower numbers than the models expect in our areas (I'm in Cherry Hill). On the flip side, the tropical south to north moving systems are often within range of the models, or sometimes even stronger (see the big rain storm early last spring). Noreasters are the killers from the coast west to the Philly area.