It's been really quiet and boring weather wise over the past few weeks. The remainder of the work week looks to remain that way, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the upper 70s and near 80 degrees by Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to hang into the 70s for Wednesday and Thursday, before a cold front will likely push through Thursday evening bringing the chance for a few showers. Friday will bring cooler weather, with temperatures likely in the mid to upper 60s. 


This is not what I have been monitoring over the past week or so. I have been noticing the medium to long range GFS evolution of the possible cool down. The possibility of a more chillier pattern is looking more and more likely by the end of next week and especially by the end of the month of October.  After the cold front pushes through Thursday, temperatures in the 60s look to rule for the upcoming weekend - 10/18 - 10/19, which is probably about average temperatures for the time being. A high pressure will then develop to the north and sag towards the south and east. At first, this will likely allow for slightly below normal temperatures - low to mid 60s as we will be under the influence of a northerly wind. And as the high slides more towards the south, we could see a brief warm up with temperatures into the lower 70s again by early next week. By the middle part of next week, the pattern looks to be in a changing mode. The GFS depicts a strong low pressure to exit the plains and head towards New England. More rain will likely be confined to that area, but along with that low will be a cold front. A strong one at that. A ridge will build in towards the West Coast, while a trof will develop over the Eastern Seaboard. This will allow for chillier temperatures to develop and some areas to the north that have not witnessed a freeze yet this season could very well receive this by 10/25. The GFS depicts the trof to bring in the first signs of Arctic air, with high temperatures by the end of the month, remaining in the upper 40s and lower 50s with 20s and 30s for night-time lows.

Let me remind you the GFS has been very inconsistent with this. I have started to see the ECMWF side with the GFS as we head into late next week with regards to the developing trof. So this definitely increases the odds of this happening. As November appears right now, there are many ensembles suggesting a +PNA will develop. This could very well allow the trof to linger along the East Coast, giving an overall temperature department of negatives. 


If this holds, as long range models do show, we could see signs of winter much earlier this year than we have seen. You can definitely count on an ealier leaf drop than the past several years. And as much as I do not want to say the word snow for the end of the month, you have to think that if we do see this trof exist by the end of October with highs in the 40s and 50s, a trof by the end of November could warrant 40s and 30s for highs. I've seen stranger things happen, but I would put a lot of stick in a below normal temperature month for November. October could also very well wind up below normal too. The signs are there and the models show it, but can this become reality?

Here's just a little something for you to think of when it comes time for "Strong Arctic Build-Up." 
Look how much more ice there is out there than last year. I would not worry so much about the snow because by the end of November, the entire area up there will be covered. Ice is more important and as long as this continues and we see a nice snow pack develop, the spill of Artic air will likely have a much stronger push as the winter months approach.