Hanna To Be A Tropical Storm Over The Area Saturday...
Posted: (September 03, 2008 09:49 am)
As of 8AM this morning, Tropical Storm Hanna was moving towards the East at 4MPH with sustained maximum winds of 60MPH. This system has been fighting for its life. An upper level low located towards the north brought down a decent amount of shear. The shear eats away the thunderstorms that help storms grow. Without thunderstorms, you have no Tropical Storm. Even under 20-40KT wind shear, Hanna has continued to maintain its strength which is very impressive. Once the upper level low starts heading back towards the north, a ridge will build in and will allow Hanna to start a northerly motion. Until then, Hanna will continue to look beat and extremely unorganized. Below are the most up to date models for Hanna. Notice the big shift towards the east as of last night. This is because a cold front in the Mid-West will continue to head towards the east and the more time Hanna takes to head north, the quicker Hanna will turn towards the east as it will get picked up by the cold front. With the track near the Philadelphia area, Hanna will be able to sustain Tropical Storm intensity. Why? Most models have a landfall near Myrtle Beach as it quickly heads towards the N and eventually the NE. If it makes landfall as a minimal CAT 1 Hurricane, it will likely be a TS when it is over our area because of the rate of speed the system will be moving. Wunderground thinks it will be a CAT 1 at landfall. To me, with all that warm water and a more favorable environment, this should be a strong CAT 1 or minimal CAT 2 at landfall. This morning's 06z GFDL indicates a 980 mb TS over Philadelphia by Saturday afternoon. This would likely bring very heavy rain and damaging winds to the area.....
As satellite imagery continues to roll in, Hanna is beginning to get more thunderstorm activity closer to its center. I think the entire weakening process is finished and believe Hanna is on its way to developing. Slow development is possible today, but a steady strengthening system is likely by Thursday and Friday.
Nice blog DUDE!
Posted: (September 03, 2008 11:21 am)
Saturday is gonna be really interesting.. Today and tonight is gonna be critical in the track forecast.. Todays shift west was a good 100miles from 2 days ago... SO instead of being an APPS runner, this could be a coastal hugger..
And if she re-emerges offshore around the NC/VA border, she could maintain her strength and bring SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS to our area and wind. The wind speed will take time to determine. But today is WED, so we have about 3 days before she affects us..
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