Earlier last week, many models predicted Gustav would be a category 2 hurricane, possible a weak 3 at landfall.  As Gustav intensified to a strong 4 before hitting Cuba, there was much talk about Gustav being a 4 at landfall, maybe just shy of a category 5, even though the computers were still printing out numbers closer to a category 3 at best.  Even Steve Lyons from the weather channel hinted that Gustav could be much stronger at landfall then the computers were predicting based on his statement that usually the models can be off 1 to 2 categories in strength once you get over 72 hours out.  He was hinting that even he believed Gustav would be much higher than the strength indicated on the models.  The models actually had this one right many days out as Gustav slowly weakened to 110mph before landfall was made.  A rare win for the models as many were predicting the landfall category would a strong 3 to a weak 4 even in the face of the data.

JW