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My Sister in Tampa Bay and Fay
Posted: (August 16, 2008 09:22 am)
Good Morning all,
I just got off the phone with my sister Jen. Jen lives just northwest of Tampa Bay in the lovely town of New Port Richey Florida. I did tell her to take heed of the approach of Fay next week. The locals down there in the area are talking about Fay and there is an awareness that a storm may approach next week. My sister Jen will give me live reports via the phone as conditions warrant in New Port Richey Florida.
The track is not etched in stone but I do now see this going to Florida's West Coast. The intensity of this storm will fluctuate during the next couple of days. Let's get one thing straight though. If at anytime Fay gets over water it will intensify rather quickly into a hurricane. Right now it is about to leave the west coast of Hatti into the straights between Hatti and Cuba. Fay could get much stronger later today as it gets away from the land mass before it begins encoutering Cuba.
I have been on a cruise down there. I have seen Cuba, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic these islands are very mountainous. The mountains remind me of Pennsylvania's Appalachains. Anyone who thought that the islands would not have an impact on intensity and in some ways track have been proven wrong. If Fay would pass over islands as small as say the Bahamas there would be no affect on intensity and ultimately track due to the fact that those islands are flat and rather insignificant. Lesson learened for next time.
All interest in Florida and along the Gulf Coast should monitor the situation. I am very sure there will be fluctuations in the track of Fay and intensity.
Let's put it out there almost any track is possible at this point. Heck it is even possible it comes to the West Coast of Florida like Charley did a few years back and crosses the pennisula and re emerge on the Atlantic Ocean side.
The toughest forecast will be intensity and track. My sister Jen says that the water temps in Clearwater 5 minutes down the road from here are 88-90 in some cases that is tremendous fuel. Any tropical system that comes into contact with that type of water can quickly ( 6 hours or less) become a Cat 4 or higher hurricance case in point Charley and Katrina.
I think when all is said and done we will be amazed at hour quickly Fay became a hurricane and how quickly hurricane tracks can change.
Here is a picture of Fay this morning leaving the West Coast of Hati in Hispanola:
Kevin Reilly
krteacher1
Myweatherlive.com
I just got off the phone with my sister Jen. Jen lives just northwest of Tampa Bay in the lovely town of New Port Richey Florida. I did tell her to take heed of the approach of Fay next week. The locals down there in the area are talking about Fay and there is an awareness that a storm may approach next week. My sister Jen will give me live reports via the phone as conditions warrant in New Port Richey Florida.
The track is not etched in stone but I do now see this going to Florida's West Coast. The intensity of this storm will fluctuate during the next couple of days. Let's get one thing straight though. If at anytime Fay gets over water it will intensify rather quickly into a hurricane. Right now it is about to leave the west coast of Hatti into the straights between Hatti and Cuba. Fay could get much stronger later today as it gets away from the land mass before it begins encoutering Cuba.
I have been on a cruise down there. I have seen Cuba, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic these islands are very mountainous. The mountains remind me of Pennsylvania's Appalachains. Anyone who thought that the islands would not have an impact on intensity and in some ways track have been proven wrong. If Fay would pass over islands as small as say the Bahamas there would be no affect on intensity and ultimately track due to the fact that those islands are flat and rather insignificant. Lesson learened for next time.
All interest in Florida and along the Gulf Coast should monitor the situation. I am very sure there will be fluctuations in the track of Fay and intensity.
Let's put it out there almost any track is possible at this point. Heck it is even possible it comes to the West Coast of Florida like Charley did a few years back and crosses the pennisula and re emerge on the Atlantic Ocean side.
The toughest forecast will be intensity and track. My sister Jen says that the water temps in Clearwater 5 minutes down the road from here are 88-90 in some cases that is tremendous fuel. Any tropical system that comes into contact with that type of water can quickly ( 6 hours or less) become a Cat 4 or higher hurricance case in point Charley and Katrina.
I think when all is said and done we will be amazed at hour quickly Fay became a hurricane and how quickly hurricane tracks can change.
Here is a picture of Fay this morning leaving the West Coast of Hati in Hispanola:
Kevin Reilly
krteacher1
Myweatherlive.com
Infrared Satellite
Comments On This Blog Article
My grandparents
Posted: (August 16, 2008 07:02 pm)
Live in Port Richey as well. They are up here at the moment. Tricky forecast Kev.
Yes
Posted: (August 16, 2008 10:40 am)
Cuba is not that far from north to south at all that is why the forecast is so tricky. The intensity of the storm is the key. The stronger the storm gets it begins to turn north. Florida could be in trouble especially if it becomes a hurricane today south of cuba and continues moving west. Kevin
Movement
Posted: (August 16, 2008 10:07 am)
Just looking at the radar image, this system seems to be pulling mostly west and perhaps a little south, not north at the moment. That could give it some fuel as it leaves Hispanola and hits open waters southwest of Cuba. At some point it will have to turn north (I assume), but with the current trajectory, how powerful could it get before it hits Cuba? If had taken a path directly from Hispanola to Cuba and moved west across the entire island, that would keep it from getting too strong. But let's say it more or less cuts across the width of Cuba towards Florida. That could be really nasty for the south and southwest portions of Florida.
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