The 18Z GFDL and 18Z HWRF forecast models show Fay passing Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic/Hatian Island and making it's way into the Caribbean before turning noth towards Cuba. After Fay passes Cuba it should go under rapid intensification depending on it's proximity to Florida and how much time it has before it comes in contact with Florida. Even if it is close to Florida, it should become more organized and stronger, just not as strong as it would be if it were in the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

The more west Fay tracks the more time it has to strengthen as the Gulf of Mexico contains a great environment for tropical development. It is not out of the realm possibilities for Fay to be a Cat 5 if it were to head towards the Florida Panhandle closer to Tallahassee.

With that being said, those are the only 2 models that predict Fay to be a major hurricane out of at least a dozen other models that project Fay to be a tropical storm/weak hurricane.

Also, this is not a forecast, nor does this reflect my thoughts on what will happen with Fay. These two models; the GFDL and HWRF forecast possible scenarios.