Tropical Storm Bertha, with sustained winds of 50mph continues to chug westward in the Atlantic today. Computer guidance models offer an interesting display of possible tracks for the system next week. Some include a possible run at the East Coast. Yes, it is still early in the game here but the TREND is to move this along the classic West to East journey than curve up the coast.
SHIPS model that shows intensity has the storm peaking at 82 mph or a CATEGORY 1 hurricane. The thinking on this model the other day was 98mph. The waters are warm but not warm like late August or September so I think the 82 is about right. My feeling is this barely makes it to hurricane status but forecasting storm power vs. direction is still a very difficult thing to do for not only me but the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
CLICK HERE FOR SATELLITE VIEW OF BERTHA (ATLANTIC VIEW)
CLICK HERE FOR CLOSE UP OF BERTHA VIEW
Below are the chances of an East Coast hit by city, this is MY FORECAST not the NHC.
| BERTHA MAKING LANDFALL ON THESE CITIES |
| CITY |
CHANCE |
DAY/NEXT WEEK |
| ST MARTIN |
24% |
WED |
| SAN JUAN, PR |
18% |
THURS |
| NASSAU BAHAMAS |
29% |
FRI/SAT |
| MIAMI FL |
22% |
SAT |
| DAYTONA BCH FL |
28% |
SAT |
| JACKSONVILLE FL |
25% |
SUN |
| SAVANNAH GA |
21% |
SUN |
| CHARLESTON SC |
23% |
MON 7/14 |
| MYRTLE BCH SC |
26% |
MON 7/14 |
| WILMINGTON NC |
29% |
MON 7/14 |
| CAPE HATTERAS NC |
39% |
MON 7/14 |
| CAPE FEAR NC |
35% |
MON 7/14 |
| VIRGINIA BCH VA |
30% |
MON 7/14 |
| OCEAN CITY MD |
25% |
TUE 7/15 |
| REHOBOTH BCH DE |
23% |
TUE 7/15 |
| CAPE MAY NJ |
20% |
TUE 7/15 |
| ATLANTIC CITY NJ |
16% |
TUE 7/15 |
| SEASIDE HEIGHTS NJ |
15% |
TUE 7/15 |
| NYC METRO |
15% |
TUE 7/15 |
| HAMPTONS LI NY |
20% |
TUE 7/15 |
| BLOCK ISL RI |
22% |
WED 7/16 |
| NEWPORT RI |
27% |
WED 7/16 |
| CAPE COD MA |
28% |
WED 7/16 |
| BOSTON MA |
26% |
WED 7/16 |
| PORTSMOUTH NH |
23% |
WED 7/16 |
| PORTLAND ME |
27% |
WED 7/16 |
| EASTPORT ME |
30% |
WED 7/16 |
| NOVA SCOTIA |
32% |
WED 7/16 |
| NEW FOUNDLAND |
33% |
THUR 7/17 |
| SCALE FOR LANDFALL CHANCES |
|
| 19% OR LESS |
|
|
| 20-29% |
|
|
| 30-39% |
|
|
| 40%-49% |
|
|
| 50%-70% |
|
|
| 71%-90% |
|
|
| 90%+ |
|
|
OTHER MODELS....SOURCE UM WEATHER
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 05 2008
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 885
MILES...1420 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1705
MILES...2740 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BERTHA WILL BE ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...37.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
________________________________________________________
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008
WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BERTHA
STRUGGLED A LITTLE BIT...HOWEVER NOW THAT IT IS HEADING FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BERTHA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KT AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING AS SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT NOW
PREDICTS BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF PREDICTED
SHEAR...THE INTENSITY IS HELD A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND
GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.
BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE.
THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREADS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD...
EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED VERY CLOSE TO
THE NHC TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.6N 37.3W 45 KT/50 MPH
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 40.1W 45 KT/50 MPH
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.9W 50 KT/55 MPH
36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.4N 47.6W 55 KT/61 MPH
48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.1N 51.2W 60 KT/66 MPH
72HR VT 08/1200Z 20.8N 57.5W 65 KT/72 MPH
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 65 KT/72 MPH
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT/72 MPH
