The latest forecast is for some interesting weather to take place across the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow afternoon and evening along a stationary front with sfc low pressure system riding along it.  The potential for super cells and lines with bowing segments is possible but the Mid- Atlantic area will be split into three sections and we will break that down.  Funny thing about tomorrows threat is if we combined the best dynamics for each area we would see the potential for a descent severe weather outbreak.

New York-Northern PA-Northern NJ

This area will have the least to worry about due to the location of the best dynamics and ascent with the s/w further southward.  However activity could pick up along the front in the evening hours but due to the lack of instability that is sfc based the threat should be for elevated storms.  Strongest flow aloft will be over this area which will hurt the severe chances further southward.

Severe Weather Expected (Very Low Risk)- Gusty winds and possible flooding.

PHL metro area

Moisture and WAA make its way into the area just in time for the mid level s/w to pass thru in the afternoon/evening hours.  Lack of speed shear will hurt the chances for organized threat of severe weather.  0-6km shear values less then 25kts will be the reason for water loading and reduced CAPE and threat for hail.  The positives for severe weather will be the descent low level shear and very low LCL heights and the potential is still there for an isolated tornado.  Storms by the vertical shear show very short lived super cells are possible and conditions might support an isolated tornado but this potential will be talk about at the bottom. 

Severe Threat Expected (Slight Risk)- Damaging winds and flooding....isolated tornado.

DCA southward

The main difference from the Philly area is this area will have a MLJ and that will boost 0-6km shear profiles above 35kts supporting super cells and an organized risk.  How they get that number may play a role...since water loading may play somewhat of a role reducing updraft momentum.  This area will have the highest potential for severe weather as of right now with the combination of shear/instability along with the path of the mid level s/w increasing uplift.  Very low LCL heights combined with impressive EHI and VGP numbers this area will have the potential for tornadic super cells.  Directional shear is not impressive but the winds due turn from the wsw at the lower levels to wnw aloft. 

Severe Threat Expected (Slight Risk-moderate risk)- Not a moderate risk but definitely a little bit more then slight so will side in between.  Potential for tornadoes, small hail, and damaging winds.

What could go wrong?

MCVs' (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) have developed from the activity across the Midwest today and these will push eastward possibly affecting the areas above in a way to increase thunderstorm potential and possibily tornadic potential.  As these MCV's push eastward they might locally backed the flow at the sfc increasing directional shear.  However, I am not sure on where these features will track or if they will make it here.  So stay tuned to myweatherlive.