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MikeDeFino Student Meteorologist
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Where are the tornadoes going to be Friday?
Posted: (May 30, 2008 03:25 am)



Tomorrow looks to be a bit calmer for tornadoes.  Two main areas I am going to highlight are Illinois and another area in Kansas.

 

Illinois

At first glance the winds at the sfc will veer during the day tomorrow decreasing directional shear values.  After looking at some other stuff I agree with the SPC on highlighting this area in a 15% area. Low LCL heights combined with the low LFC heights show lots of CAPE in the lower 3km with very steep 0-1.5km lapse rates showing an enhanced area of low level stretching combined with sufficent vertical shear.

 

Kansas

 

Tomorrow evening could produce some more tornadic super cells for Kansas this time in the East part of the state. Similar to reasons above this area has an enhanced area of low level stretching with significant CAPE in lower 3km and very steep low level lapse rates from 0-1.5km approaching 9C/km. Strong sfc convergence along the front combined with the RRQ of a mid level jet streak should contribute to the development of a few super cells capable of tornadoes.  In addition to jet diffluence aloft which supports a super cell threat. 

 

Damaging winds and Hail

Most areas in the threat for severe weather tomorrow will experience damaging winds and hail.  Strong MLJ pushing line of storms along at a fast pace will be the main reason for damaging winds with a few bowing segments.  Behind the front will feature a better chance for hail into the Central Plains with mid level cold pool increasing lapse rates threat for hail/wind. 


 
 
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