Tornado Outbreak again for Friday in the same area as Thursday outbreak

Was not planning on writing something up for Friday's severe weather event , but it kind've creeped up on must people and new model data is highlighting very high tornadic potential.

The first area that catches my eye is NE Colorado into SW Nebraska ina very narrow area between the warm front and dry line.  The CAP will hold storng and prevent early convection and maybe convection altogether (but I doubt that will happen).  Moderate to strong instability along with a strong LLJ structure increasing thermoodynamic profiles will help erode the CAP.  Strong forcing in the left front quadrant of the ULJ combined with strong PVA will lead to the development of super cells in NE Colorado and SW Nebraska into KS.  The threat is narrow because of the dry line and warm front so close together.  Once storms drift ahead of warm front they will become elevated and decrease in tornadic potential.  Surface vorticity and maximized shear will lead to storms quickly developing rotation. 

Second area, the better area for chasers in Kansas ahead of the dry line and south of the warm front.  The threat is almost identical for portions of Kansas.  The only major change is the upper lvel winds will increase from 40-50kts to 80-90kts.  BL-6km shear profiles will increase to 60-70kts up from the 50kts today.  MLCAPE values will range from 1500j/kg to 3000j/kg.  0-3km helicity values will range from 300-400m2s2 with the increased vertical shear and strong veering winds from the sfc to 700mb.  

Third area,  Oklahoma during the nighttime might be the most severe of all the areas because it will take place at night.  CAP will erodeduring the evening allowing for some activity to form.  Low level winds should increase throughout the evening preventing the PBL from decoupling as a sfc wave devleops along a stationary boundary in Northern TX.  This will enhance low level shear with 0-1km helicity profiles to 300m2s2.  

Be safe if you live in these area and if your chasing.   My chaser location will be somewhere between Colby, KS and Hill City, KS.