Southwest NE, West Central KS, West OK, Central TX

The area of concern (above) is looking like they will have a significant severe weather outbreak with the newer data coming in.  The main trigger and focus for these storms will be a well defined dry line extending from NE down thru TX.  The one thing that catches my eye right away in the model data is the strong instability along and ahead of the dry line.  SBCAPE values will range from 2500-3500+j/kg.  LI values will shown to be around -8 to -9C in some spots!!  The strong LLJ structure will be a contributor to the thermodynamic profile with winds around 45kts.  Backing sfc winds throughout the day will enhance low level shear with a southerly wind becoming southeasterly.  The negatively tilted trough will increase upper air divergence and diffluence over the threaten areas.  But the neg. tilt keeps the winds mostly behind the dry line and a slight shift could impact the forecast very easily.  Rigth now it looks like the threaten areas will tap enough winds aloft for supportive vertical shear to sustain super cell development as the omega sig. ridge pushes eastward.  Signficant 500mb cold pool aloft will push in mainly towards the northern part of the dry line increasing the lapse rates supporting threat for large hail and damaging wind. 

The area that looks to be hit the hardest is Southwest NE.  All the parameters are lining up for the potential for strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.  Low level CAPE values are expected to be extreme along with extreme 0-3km shear values approaching 400+m2s2.  0-1km EHI is over 4j/kg!!!!!

A few things could shift and cause an increased threat or a decreased threat.  Strong CAP will be in place but with diurnal heating, thermal and moisture advection, and strong low level/sfc convergence it should erode leading to explosive development of super cells.  Winds aloft will be a key factor if they wrap up around the trough further to the west then this threat may be for pulse storms (unorganized threat).  Winds aloft are stronger further east then we could be seeing signs of a major tornadic outbreak.