Looking over data for La Nina Springs/Outgoing winter the 3 years that look closest to this summer are

1974.....................1989........................2000

However....................

Looking over the stage the La Nina is headed (weakening) I do not think this is a HOT summer.  My thinking is we'll see the heat in Mid June to Early July with near normal temps in August. This will make areas North of NC-ARK-COLO-NEVADA "SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL" for temps this summer. This would be the Northern half of the USA as far as temps are concerned.

La Nina Update..............

I do agree with the statement below and based on the uncertain stage of La Nina past July I do think the slowly fading stage of La Nina in April continues.

This makes the normally HOT LA NINA summers not as likely.  Precip and ground moisture has been good to above normal in most areas east of the Rockies and this will keep the HEAT in more of a slighty above normal +1 to +1.5 vs. HOT at +4 to +6.

So PRECIP from La Ninas above indicate some moisture on the east and a bit dry in Central US.  No regions were very very dry or very very wet.  The Mississippi Valley has been very wet all spring and I see this flowing right into June. 

I do think it will dry out by July in the Central Part of the country and other areas pretty neutral with precip this summer. These means most regions will not be more than +3"/-3" for rain this summer when it is all said and done.

Summer will be defined as June 1 to August 31.

Regional Summer Outlooks will be in another blog to follow, this is just an overall

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:

1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO.

2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1971-2000).

3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - SOMETIMES CALLED MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS.

4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CURRENTLY KNOWN TO BE PREDICTABLE ONLY OVER A WEEK OR SO.

5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING BOTH THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO.

6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.

7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) AND SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR).

8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS).

  9) AN OBJECTIVE CONSOLIDATION (ABBREVIATED CON IN THE TEXT) OF THE OCN, CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF OUR FORECAST TOOLS. 

  LA NINA CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING APRIL 2008, AS REFLECTED BY CHANGES IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAVE WEAKENED, WHILE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES ARE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LATEST WEEKLY SSTS IN THE WESTERNMOST NINO-4 AND NINO-3.4 REGIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.6°C AND 0.8°C BELOW AVERAGE, WHILE DEPARTURES IN THE EASTERNMOST NINO-3 AND NINO-1+2 REGIONS ARE 0°C AND -0.3°C RESPECTIVELY. 

  SSTS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COOL TO MAINTAIN THE PERSISTENT ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, AND ENHANCED CONVECTION COVERED THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. COLLECTIVELY, THESE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS INDICATE AN ONGOING LA NINA. 

  A MAJORITY OF THE RECENT DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL SST FORECASTS FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION INDICATE LA NINA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MAY-JUNE-JULY 2008). THEREAFTER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORECASTS, WITH THE MAJORITY REFLECTING ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS (AVERAGE SST OF -0.5 TO 0.5 IN THE NINO-3.4 REGION) DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. 

 HOWEVER, THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS SPANS THE POSSIBILITY OF A RETURN TO LA NINA OR EVEN AN EL NINO BY THE END OF 2008. BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND RECENT TRENDS, A TRANSITION FROM LA NINA TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE DURING JUNE-JULY 2008. 

  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS RELATED TO LA NINA OFTEN PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MONTHS AFTER SSTS RETURN TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. EXPECTED LA NINA IMPACTS DURING MAY-JULY 2008 INCLUDE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER INDONESIA AND BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. 

  THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JJA 2008 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF ALASKA, BASED ON MAINLY STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS. SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SECTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHWEST, DUE TO COOL SST ANOMALIE NEARBY.  

SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CALLED FOR FROM IOWA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, BASED ON ALL FORECAST TOOLS.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, AND IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON NEARLY ALL TOOLS.  

SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG SECTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST THROUGH SON, DUE TO COOL SST ANOMALIES.  ELSEWHERE, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE, NEAR AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. 

  ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS CALLED FOR IN ALASKA FROM JJA THROUGH ASO 2008. SUB-MEDIAN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FROM JJA THROUGH ASO, WHILE ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL IS PREDICTED FOR SECTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHEAST.  THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW YORK, AND SUB-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM NDJ-JFM.  

RELATIVE DRYNESS IS PREDICTED IN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST FROM DJF-MAM.  SMALL, BUT CONSISTENT  LA NINA CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING APRIL 2008, AS REFLECTED BY CHANGES IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAVE WEAKENED, WHILE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES ARE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LATEST WEEKLY SSTS IN THE WESTERNMOST NINO-4 AND NINO-3.4 REGIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.6°C AND 0.8°C BELOW AVERAGE, WHILE DEPARTURES IN THE EASTERNMOST NINO-3 AND NINO-1+2 REGIONS ARE 0°C AND -0.3°C RESPECTIVELY. 

  BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING  CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SIGNALS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND SECTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND TEXAS ARE PREDICTED FOR AMJ-JJA 2009.