POWERFUL HURRICANE IKE EXPLODES TO A CATEGORY 4, LANDFALL ON THE U.S. EAST COAST ?
Posted: (September 04, 2008 12:58 am)

Powerful Hurricane Ike is now a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 135mph.  The models used for intensity SHIPS-HWRF-GFDL did not even see this and in fact played a slow increase in intensity.  So where will it go and how does this stack up against other exploding storms....

ANDREW (1992).....In 36 hours.....70mph winds to 145 mph winds
OPAL (1996).............In 24 hours....70mph winds to 150 mph winds
KATRINA (2005).......In 12 hours....115mph winds to 170mph winds

Hurricane Ike System Track (2008)   view table
Adv #		Advisory Date (UTC)	Name (UTC)	Position		Direction	Speed mph (kts)	Pressure mb (in)	Winds mph (kts)
				Lat	Lon
	12	0300 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	22.1N	54.1W	WNW	17 (15)	948 (27.99)	135 (117)
	11	0000 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	21.7N	53.2W	WNW	18 (16)	960 (28.35)	115 (100)
	10	2100 WED SEP 03	Hurricane Ike	21.6N	52.7W	WNW	18 (16)	984 (29.06)	80 (69)
	9	1500 WED SEP 03	Tropical Storm Ike	20.8N	51.2W	WNW	18 (16)	991 (29.26)	70 (61)
	8	0900 WED SEP 03	Tropical Storm Ike	20.6N	49.6W	WNW	18 (16)	996 (29.41)	65 (56)

The curve from the UKMET, GFS and HWRF are starting to become more likely. Why ? The ridge or HIGH pressure will be moving out and IKE looks to want to go around this HIGH and maybe up the coast like Hanna will do.  The models this far out can be off by 500 miles so don't look to far into the long range forecast at this point.



Very interesting historical map with only 3 hurricanes hitting the U.S. East Coast.  Both Isabel and the Labor Day Storm of 1938 can in at weird angles and Esther doing a loop.  Climatology odds are against a SE coast hit at this point but as the storm rolls east we'll see different hurricanes appear on the map.

MY THINKING ON IKE AT THIS HOUR.....

Very impressive on the satellite but I do think some shear is in here by later on Thursday.  This could bring this down to a CAT 3.  I also lean toward this rolling up the coast like Hanna is going to do.  Yes it is far away but that is my gut feeling right now.  Once Hanna moves north on Saturday the real track of IKE will start to show up better on the models.