HURRICANE IKE HEADS WEST, TRACK IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FLORIDA OR THE GULF OF MEXICO 2PM UPDATE
Posted: (September 05, 2008 01:01 pm)

Hurricane IKE was downgraded to a Category 3 today as some shear did get into the Northeast side the past 12 hours.  Ike was a Category 4 the past 24 hours and once the shear lets up in 24-48 hours the intensity should pick up once again.  

The track has become more uncertain, with once model up the Florida coast and the other into Mexico.  The models have been shifting the past few days on the long range projections of IKE.  Once Hanna get further north tomorrow we'll have a better idea where IKE will go.  The intensity models are in the Category 3-4 range and I do think with some upwelling from Hanna over the Bahamas that is about right.

Hurricane Ike System Track (2008)   view table
Adv #		Advisory Date (UTC)	Name (UTC)	Position		Direction	Speed mph (kts)	Pressure mb (in)	Winds mph (kts)
				Lat	Lon
	18	1500 FRI SEP 05	Hurricane Ike	23.2N	62.7W	W	16 (14)	954 (28.17)	120 (104)
	17	0900 FRI SEP 05	Hurricane Ike	23.7N	61W	W	15 (13)	945 (27.91)	125 (109)
	16	0300 FRI SEP 05	Hurricane Ike	23.6N	59.5W	W	14 (12)	945 (27.91)	135 (117)
	15	2100 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	23.6N	58.2W	WNW	14 (12)	945 (27.91)	135 (117)
	14	1500 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	23.2N	57W	WNW	16 (14)	938 (27.7)	140 (122)
	13	0900 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	22.7N	55.8W	WNW	17 (15)	935 (27.61)	145 (126)
	12	0300 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	22.1N	54.1W	WNW	17 (15)	948 (27.99)	135 (117)
	11	0000 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	21.7N	53.2W	WNW	18 (16)	960 (28.35)	115 (100)
	10	2100 WED SEP 03	Hurricane Ike	21.6N	52.7W	WNW	18 (16)	984 (29.06)	80 (69)
	9	1500 WED SEP 03	Tropical Storm Ike	20.8N	51.2W	WNW	18 (16)	991 (29.26)	70 (61)
	8	0900 WED SEP 03	Tropical Storm Ike	20.6N	49.6W	WNW	18 (16)	996 (29.41)	65 (56)

The models vary on the track and some still play up the Florida coast, where I lean at this hour.  As I stated on the top of the blog, once we get Hanna north we'll have a better idea.  The GFDL model below shows the track through the Straits of Florida and that could be big problems for the Keys and the Gulf of Mexico States.






The tracks show some Florida hits and some up the coast.  Ike is not going to be an easy call as we get into the weekend because you now have to include the Keys, Miami and both coasts of Florida.



The SHEAR tendency for IKE is interesting because it is heading into an area that has shear to the west and southwest.  The question will be does this shear move out in the next 24 hours.  I did have it moving out tonight so we'll see if this holds.  Shear is like taking a knife to the clouds of IKE.  It's kinda like if you get enough shear it cuts the head off the storm.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS.....



The water vapor around IKE is decent but look at the North and West part of the storm.  The darker colors indicate dry air.  When that dry air gets in the system it weakens the storm.  It's like choking the storm as it trys to breath and develop.  The SW and West areas of the storm show little dry air so I expect that NOT to be a factor in the next 24--48 hours.

STEERING WINDS FOR IKE.............



The steering for the lower levels (below 6,000 ft) shows a HIGH in Texas as Hanna moves north.  This HIGH is projected to slide across the Southeast and allow a west track.  Where this heads off the SE coast will decide where and if IKE makes a turn up the East or West coast of Florida.  Hanna moving out will help on the tracks the next few days.

UPPER LEVEL STEERING (Map Below)



The upper level steering (Above 12,000 feet) shows the HIGH elongated across the Western Gulf.  This could mean a supressed track if this slides east as it should.  This would explain why the NOGAPS wants to drive this SW across CUBA and into Mexico.

MY THINKING AT THIS POINT

I do think this will be a MAJOR HURRICANE as it approaches the Florida coast by the late weekend.  After that I still like the turn up the Florida East Coast but I'm not as confident as the past few days on the final track.  Once Hanna goes north we'll have a better idea.  I'll have another update later today or this evening with the 5pm update.