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Posted: (September 04, 2008 02:44 pm)
| IMPACT OF HANNA THIS WEEKEND | ||||||
| CITY | LAST GFS | GFS NOW | LAST NAM | NAM NOW | MY CALL | CONDITIONS/WIND/IMPACT |
| RALEIGH NC | .21" | 2.94" | 4.06" | 2.37" | 2.78" | SQUALLS, RAIN , SOME WIND |
| WILMINGTON NC | .56" | .96" | .53" | .71" | .88" | CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE |
| CAPE HATTERAS NC | 1.03" | .88" | .36" | .70" | .89" | CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE |
| RICHMOND VA | 1.80" | 2.93" | 2.43" | 1.94" | 2.45" | WINDS TO 50 MPH, SQUALLS |
| WASHINGTON DC | 2.75" | 1.71" | 2.59" | 4.33" | 2.98" | MAINLY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS |
| BALTIMORE MD | 2.57" | 1.84" | 2.41" | 4.63" | 3.02" | SOME FLOODING IN AREA |
| VIRGINIA BCH VA | 1.43" | 1.28" | .59" | .28" | .98" | TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN |
| OCEAN CITY MD | 1.03" | 1.21" | .77" | .78" | .87" | SOME HEAVY SQUALLS, WINDY |
| REHOBOTH BCH DE | 1.14" | 1.16" | .98" | .99" | .93" | SOME HEAVY SQUALLS, WINDY |
| PHILADELPHIA PA | 2.99" | 3.77" | 1.40" | 2.51" | 3.34" | HEAVY RAIN N & W BURBS |
| ATLANTIC CITY NJ | 2.42" | 2.42" | .54" | 1.07" | 1.45" | TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN |
| TRENTON NJ | 2.92" | 3.65" | 1.90" | 2.62" | 3.03" | SQUALLS, HEAVY RAIN |
| BINGHAMTON NY | XXXX | .16" | XXXX | 1.32" | .55" | OCC. SHOWERS |
| SCRANTON PA | XXXX | .57" | XXXX | 5.68" | 3.46" | TOUGH CALL ON RAIN, SOME HVY |
| READING PA | XXXX | 1.20" | XXXX | 5.76" | 4.04" | FLOODING POSSIBLE |
| ALLENTOWN PA | 2.33" | 1.76" | 5.00" | 5.01" | 4.05" | POSS. OROGRAPHIC FLOODING |
| SEASIDE HEIGHTS NJ | 2.56" | 2.67" | .58" | 1.26" | 1.56" | MINIMAL TROP STRM WINDS, RAIN |
| NEW YORK CITY | 3.91" | 3.85" | 1.77" | 1.72" | 2.98" | WINDY WITH SQUALLS, RAIN |
| WESTERN LONG ISL | 4.23" | 3.42" | 1.54" | 1.06" | 2.76" | WINDY WITH SQUALLS, RAIN |
| EASTERN LONG ISL | 3.56" | 3.54" | 1.24" | .81" | 1.78" | WINDY WITH SQUALLS, RAIN |
| NEWARK NJ | 3.60" | 3.60" | 1.73" | 2.08" | 2.78" | WINDY WITH SQUALLS, RAIN |
| OVERALL MINOR IMPACT | MODEL CHANGES BELOW…… | |||||
| OVERALL MODERATE IMPACT | NAM SHOWS INCREASE | |||||
| OVERALL HIGH IMPACT | PROBLEMS BALT/DC/ALLENTOWN | |||||
| FLOODING MINOR | GFS WENT UP PHILLY NORTH | |||||
| FLOODING MODERATE | BEACHES LESS RAIN | |||||
| FLOODING HIGH | MORE WIND AT BEACHES | |||||
The real X factor in all this is the NAM model and the BIG numbers it pops out for Reading PA, Allentown PA. I will tell you the predicted track of Hanna has been very accurate with the NAM and it wants to make several features players in all this. A front develops along the coast, Inverted trough adds to orographic lift of the hills (like Floyd did) and THETA-E GRADIENT WITH ADVECTION.
PLUS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AS SOME JET DYNAMICS BEGIN TO PLAY A ROLE.
THE FRONTOGENESIS THAT IS DEPICTED IS CONCERNING AS THIS IMPLIES
THERE IS SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE.
Now all that may sound complex but some of this did happen with Floyd as the western side of that storm had much more rain and I think Hanna will do the same thing.
Comments On This Blog Article
Rob Thanks
Posted: (September 04, 2008 04:25 pm)
Really great blogs breaking down the models. Rob you are the best in the business when it comes to breaking down the models and the possibilities. Most don't want to hear the possibliites most want an answer, but my theory is that you must have the possibilities explained before an asnwer can be arrived at. I have thought about an old boundary coming up the coast and there will be one. We will get most of our rain from convergence!! Convergence could mean much bigger rains. Afterall don't we just live and die by the convergence factor when it comes to snow around here. Kevin
So Nice, I said it twice
Posted: (September 04, 2008 03:15 pm)
Sorry, I duplicated the comment, but the delete option won't work..."error on page."
Some Mid-Northern DE Love???
Posted: (September 04, 2008 03:15 pm)
Yo! Any Dover, DE and Wilm., DE numbers??? With storms like these, the variations can be huge in big swaths (like Rehoboth to Philly). Thanks.
