Posted: (December 04, 2008 09:51 am)
Today a COLD FRONT sweeps through the area with some showers and colder weather trailing behind the system. The colder weather will usher in a chance of snow now later Saturday night and Sunday morning. The GFS is on top of it with the 0z/7pm run last night showing snow in the big cities for the weekend. So lets look at the numbers below and compare models and come up with a forecast. Boy there sure is something weird about Dec 5-7 almost every year ! CITY PRECIP THICKNESS 5,500/850MB GRD TMPS MY CALL NOTES PHILLY .09" 528-525 20 TO 16 32-33 1" TO 1.5" MODELS NEED TO AGREE LEHIGH VLY .11" 525 TO 523 19 TO 15 28-29 1" TO 2" SNOW RATIO 15:1 LEHIGH POCONOS .13" 524 TO 516 17 TO 12 25 TO 27 2" TO 3" SNOW RATIO 17:1 POCONOS SNJ BEACH .13" 529 TO 527 22 TO 19 37.3 TO 37.4 WET SNOW 1" ? BORDERLINE TEMPS NYC METRO .09" 527 TO 521 18 TO 14 31 TO 33 COATING TO 1" CITY WET-BURBS WHITE BALTIMORE .06" 528 TO 525 19 TO 16 35 TO 31 COATING TEMPS CLOSE D.C. METRO .05" 528 19.4 34.5 SNW SHOWERS COATING AT BEST BOSTON .29" 543 TO 530 21 TO 15 30-35 2-4" SNOW POSS. SUNDAY SNOW LIKELY ! PROVIDENCE .20" 527 TO 518 16 TO 8 30-36 1" OR SO LIKELY SUNDAY SNOW LIKELY ! HARTFORD .13" 525 TO 514 19 TO 10 26 TO 32 1-2" POSSIBLE SUNDAY SNOW LIKELY !
DECEMBER 5-7 IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION......HMMMMM..
This gets weird as we normally do not get much snow at all in December let alone during the beginning of the month. Is this becoming a annual event ? Who knows ?
DEC 5-7 2008...................????? ( MAYBE 1-3" POSSIBLE)
DEC 5-6 2007...................1-3" FELL
DEC 6-7 2006................... TRACE TO SNW SHOWERS
DEC 4-6 2005................... 4-6"
DEC 5-7 2004................... NONE
DEC 5-6 2003................... 5-7"
So if we get snow this weekend we'll have 4 of the last 6 years with more than 1" of snow in the Mid-Atlantic Region from DC to NYC.
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR "WEEKEND" BOSTON TO DC METRO (GFS MODEL 7PM THURS )
The NEW NAM just in 12z/7am has no snow or precip for NYC south and just a little in Boston this weekend. I do want to see the
GFS 12z run out soon and a better look at the 0z NAM tonight. We are still about 60 or more hours from the event.
WILD CARD.... (THE COASTAL LOW)
The Coastal LOW that is supoose to develop and stall near the Carolina Coast is a WILD CARD. Why ? That system may also keep
the precip off the coast and mainly NE of the LOW center ifself. I do think it will be cold enough with the precip placement and
intensity the question here. This is a changing situation and it will get better tomorrow on the 12z runs, so check back for an update later today/tonight and
again tomorrow morning for the changes.
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Most Not Much But...
Posted: (December 04, 2008 09:28 pm) by: KevinReilly
a few areas especially further north and east of Philadelphia could squeeze out 1-3 inches of snow.
Kevin
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Trenton snow fall
Posted: (December 04, 2008 05:48 pm) by: rebelgg
15 inches of snow . Give me a break if philly getting .09 and lehigh getting .11 you tell me what do you think Trenton is going to get .
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next weekend?
Posted: (December 04, 2008 03:17 pm) by: snowlover30
Looks like very cold air will come in the middle of next week and possibly a storm next weekend. What do you think the possibilities of that happening are? Do you see it that way? Thanks.
