WINTER OUTLOOK STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
Posted: (November 10, 2008 09:16 pm)

The 2008-2009 Winter Outlook is starting to take shape.  So far this season October has been "NEUTRAL" and we are now into November about +5 so far. That will start to get closer to +2 to +3 in the next few weeks as slightly cooler than normal weather moves into the region.  The Myweatherlive.com outlook with a blend of many factors each weighed out to decide the final snowfall and temps for the coming winter.

We can tell you that we are leaning toward the ENSO (NEUTRAL WINTER) for the Mid-Atlantic and a good portion of the east coast.  7 of the last 12  Neutral Winters have been snowier and colder than normal. It's not  huge average to look over but it is something.  

Other factors are going into the winter forecast including the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

Negative NAO Index

• The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.
• The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway.
• They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
• The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions.
• Greenland, however, will have milder winter temperatures

source http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO by Martin Visbeck (NEGATIVE NAO TO THE LEFT)

The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low.

The increased pressure difference results in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track.

This results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland

The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Postive NAO


TOMORROW WE WILL LOOK AT THE PNA AND MJO AND HOW IT WILL PLAY A PART ON THE WINTER OUTLOOK