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Posted: (October 15, 2008 04:51 pm)
Hurricane Omar continues to move in a untypical track to the north this evening. A HURRICANE WARNING has been posted for the U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, Eastern end of Puerto Rico (VIEQUES-CULEBRA). A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.
Omar has officially 90mph winds but the Air Force Recon & convection flare-up have been playing cat and mouse all day. That means the dropsonde or data dropped into the hurricane is missing when the storm starts to really flare up. I do agree with the NHC and think this could be more like 95mph or so and should come ashore near the islands about 95-100mph or a Category 2. This was the speed of IKE along the Galveston coast last month but it may have a slightly biger impact. The reason is that the storm is getting bigger where IKE was just maintaining or even getting a little weaker. The land mass ahead of the storm (the islands) are much smaller than Texas so the influence of land and friction is much less as it nears the coast of St. Thomas and the other islands to the south and east.
Puerto Rico could have flood problems with over 10" likely esp. in the mountains of the island. The track is pretty certain at this point with the impact from St. Martin to Puerto Rico, so if you have plans to those islands you may want to reconsider. You have to remember those islands do not have the recovery plans like the U.S. mainland simply due to flying in relief vs. driving it in from many places.
(Some maps courtesy of UM Weather/Weatherunderground)
The track above shows this as a category 2 but it does have a chance at a CAT 3 as the pressure has dropped 5mb in the last few hours and even more in the last 12 hours. I give Omar a 35% chance at a CAT 3 (115mph or higher), 90% of a Category 2, and just 10% chance that it gets weaker before making landfall after midnight tonight.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH OMAR !
Comments On This Blog Article
[Online]
CAT 3 Wow
Posted: (October 16, 2008 12:24 am) by: KevinReilly
Going through the Islands as we speak very fast 20 mph wow.
Kevin Reilly
[Offline]
Lenny-Like Omar( Storm Surge)
Posted: (October 15, 2008 09:45 pm) by: itsatrough
Thanks for the update mate.
Omar will probably be cat 3 when it reaches the islands. Although the cdo has gotten smaller in size during the day the impact of rain with Omar is going to be significant because most of the islands got moderate to heavy showers over the week from a trough and the tropical wave Omar when it slowly moved westward. There were reports of many landslides over the weekend in St. Lucia where the October average rainfall was surpassed within the week.
Omar is like Lenny of 2000 which 'came from behind'. Lenny lashed the west coasts of all the islands from ABC islands up. The surge took most people by surprise. Though Omar is still a bit weaker it could deliver similar impacts especially with its increasing forward momentum. The concave shape of the island chain and their steeper ocean banks on the west coasts, seem to be the reasons why storm surge from a Northest-to-East bound storm is more significant than from the usual east-to-west bound storms. In the latter case the shape is convex and the ocean bank is less steep(on the east). I hope lessons were learned and this time people have been evacuated from vulnerable areas. I recall an entire street along with dwellings were washed away in one village in St. Lucia during Lenny whose center passed way up near St Marteen/in. The danger with Omar this time around is that its worst surge and swells are likely to come in the night when people are sleeping.
In any event, I hope and pray that the worst will not happen and that folks are sufficiently prepared.
Peace and love.
Jason Francis=
