Mandatory Evacuations Begin In New Orleans
Posted: (August 31, 2008 09:01 am)

Hurricane Gustav continues to bare down on the Gulf coast today as HURRICANE WARNINGS have been posted from Cameron Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border. Gustav weakened somewhat last night as it passed over the relatively flat lands of the western tip of Cuba but still remains a MAJOR hurricane and poses a very serious threat. Police and National Guard troops are on the streets preparing to patrol evacuated neighborhoods as bumper to bumper traffic was reported as folks begin the flee the partially rebuilt city of New Orleans.

Mayor Ray Nagin spoke on most of the major networks this morning and strongly urged everyone to evacuate the city of New Orleans. Those that did not listen would be arrested if they left there property. "This is the real deal, not a test,  Nagin said as he issued the evacuation Saturday Night. "For everyone that thinks they can sit and ride the storm out, I have news for you: that will be one of the biggest mistakes that you can make in your life."

The mandatory evacuation of the city's west bank, where levee improvements remain incomplete, was to begin first, with the east bank to follow. It's the first test of a revamped evacuation plan designed to eliminate the chaos, looting and death that followed Katrina. The city will not offer emergency services to those who choose to stay behind, Nagin said, and there will be no "last resort" shelter as there was during Katrina, when thousands suffered inside a squalid Superdome. Many residents didn't need to be ordered, with an estimated 1 million people fleeing the Gulf Coast on Saturday by bus, train, plane and car. They clogged roadways, emptied gas stations of fuel and jammed phone circuits. - Associated Press

New Orleans remains on the eastern edge of the projected track of Hurricane Gustav. Hurricane force winds only extend outwards approximately 50 miles from the center of the storm. Therefore, on it's current projected track, only Tropical Storm force winds would hit the city of New Orleans, not Hurricane force. That's according to it's current projected track. If this holds true, there are still other factors of the storm that still pose a very serious problem. The first and foremost is going to be the storm surge. The current track of Gustav does put the city of New Orleans within the highest, most dangerous part of the projected storm surge. A storm surge is a wall of water that forms from the hurricane. As the hurricane moves inland so does this wall of water. At this time that wall of water could range from 18 to 25 feet above normal tide levels.This is expected to be just east of where the center of the storm comes onshore. New Orleans currently lies within this area.
 
Another major problem is going to be the flooding rains. Anywhere from 8 to 12 inches of rain could fall from Gustav with isolated heavier amounts. This is going to produce major Flash Flooding problems through portions of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Arkansas. Isolated amounts within this area could approach 20 inches by Wednesday morning.

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Here's the very latest from the National Hurricane Center......Hurricane Gustav has weakened overnight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 120 mph with higher gusts. This is still a MAJOR hurricane, cateogry 3 on the Saffir Simpson scale. Flucuations in strength are expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Indications are that Gustav could become a category 4 storm once again by later today or tonight. 

Gustav is currently 375 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and is moving towards the northwest at 16 mph. It is expected to continue on this track for the next couple of days. On this track, Gustav will be moving over the warm waters of the central Gulf today and make landfall on the northern Gulf coast Monday.