Posted: (November 12, 2008 10:27 pm)
It is about ten days away but we do have a few hints of rain and/or snow around the 23rd of this month. Yes as we all know the GFS plays tricks all the time with systems this far out but it's still fun to watch as we head into the winter of 2008-2009. It does look like a LONG WAVE trough or push of cold wather digs in the East from November 21-24, the question is how real and how strong will it be ?
The early call to get snow means several things have to happen. The LONG WAVE TROUGH has to dig further south and a bit more to the west. This does not usually happen this early in the season, it's more likely to happen in January and February. The reason I say this if the trough does not dig deeper south and west the potential does not go up the coast, it goes out to sea.
Plenty of time to watch this on the GFS, Navy NOGAPS, The CMC Canadian Model and the always interesting Japan model the JMA. In the meantime check back for updates on this system near the 23rd and certainly back for the Myweatherlive Winter outlook next week. It ain't gonna be like last winter's teasers and well below normal snowfall !
The is most likely what the LONG WAVE TROUGH will look like around the Nov 21-23 timeframe. Expect that to be digging to far east and not enough West. This means any kind of LOW pressure or Nor'easter will miss most of the East Coast with the exception of Northern New England.
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This was from last winter when Vermont and Upstate New York got a snow event. I think this map will be close to what happens November
21-23 this month. The trough does not dig deep enough as the GFS over plays the situation 10 days out (today). This will of course change again over
the next few days so we
ll see how this plays out.
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Not much going on yet with the NAO forecast but hey it is still early in the season. The NAO is good for about 14 days out for trending so we see a Kinda "NEUTRAL" pattern toward the timeframe of November 21-23
[Online]
BRING IT!!! YEEAAHHHH!!!!
Posted: (November 14, 2008 11:28 am) by: RSmitty
I'll happily...VERY HAPPILY take mixed in November, even if it's majority rain. Just that nudge of what could be during the real season is plenty enough to get me stoked!
BTW, Rob, I added your profile to my friends list so it will be easier to track your posts. I can't remember if you have to allow the request, but if so, please do.
Thx!
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Agree
Posted: (November 13, 2008 09:28 am) by: KevinReilly
This winter is going to be different and we may find out sooner rather than later. It has been like Gothem city over here with how dark it has been lately almost like the sun lost power LOL.
Kevin
[Online]
I Can Dig It !
Posted: (November 13, 2008 12:33 am) by: 78YANKS
Looking forward to Later this Month !... No Doubt.. At this Point a Fantasy would be if we get a coating. LOL..
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yeah
Posted: (November 13, 2008 12:12 am) by: 98yanks
it better not be like last years and the previous two!! It'll go out to sea or inland would bet on it.
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we will be here
Posted: (November 12, 2008 11:59 pm) by: Whiteout
It's early November and yeah that storm is a GFS Fantasy storm. Chris is gone from the site so we are adjusting mets to the site. Once we get closer to late this month the activity will increase.
[Online]
Rob ?
Posted: (November 12, 2008 11:16 pm) by: 78YANKS
I understand that the Pro's are busy but you are the only one lately contacting the site, and you are way busy with your 4 seasons' a day. There is a storm albeit Rain, but there is not much forecasting, I know as we get into winter it gets more exciting, I'm not complaining just curious..
[Online]
Last years Pattern
Posted: (November 12, 2008 10:50 pm) by: 78YANKS
As I looked at last years GFS Loop, I went to the fridge and found some Garlic Cloves and hung them on my Computer Screen, I do not want to use the Crusifix Yet, but I will get Holy Water Tomorrow...LOL. Thanks Rob We are starving for Guidance, I know it is early but the Snow speak is really Ramping up, and that surprise during the World Series was the germ that started this..And now the Gfs is playing with the Group.. I like your long Wave Map It is a nice Vantage Point..
