Arthur to Paloma: Which Names will Retire?
Posted: (September 07, 2008 09:26 pm)

The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season is just about over and we have seen 16 named storms. Eight of these storms became hurricanes and 5 of those hurricanes became Major hurricanes. Ike holds the title as strongest storm in terms of central pressure while Gustav holds the title in terms of maximum sustained wind. Neither storm was a Cat. 5 and I doubt one will form this year. This has been a big year for landfall with all but five storms making landfall somewhere in the Atlantic basin. Current estimates indicate that the 2008 Hurricane Season has caused over $54 billion dollars in damage and has killed 992 people. These numbers will climb as the impacts of Omar and especially Paloma are updated. The question is: which named storms will be retired? I will summarize each of the 16 storms and give my prediction.

Arthur May 31-June 2
Intensity: TS (40mph)
Areas Impacted: Mexico (Yucatan) and Belize
Deaths: 5
Damage: 78 Million USD
Landfalls: 1
Synopsis: TS Arthur formed from the interaction of a tropical wave and the remnants of TS Alma. Arthur was named overland but in post analysis it was determined that Arthur's point of cyclogenesis was further east over water. Heavy rain caused devastating floods in Belize and caused significant damage to that country.
Verdict: Only 1 tropical storm has ever been retired. Despite this, Arthur did cause a decent amount of damage and I give it a 10% chance of being retired.

Bertha July 3-20
Intensity: Cat. 3 Hurricane (120mph)
Areas Impacted: Cape Verde Islands and Bermuda
Deaths: 3
Damage: MINIMAL
Landfalls: 0 (Passed very close to Bermuda)
Synopsis: Major Hurricane Bertha formed near the Cape Verde Islands in July. This feat was unpresidented. Bertha was a long lived tropical cyclone and came within 30 miles of the island as a tropical storm that caused minimal damage to the island. Bertha is indirectly responsible for 3 deaths when people in New Jersey were caught in rip currents generated by the storm.
Verdict: Since Bertha did not kill many people and only caused minimal damage, it will not be retired.

Cristobal July 19-23
Intensity: TS (65mph)
Areas Impacted: FA, GA, SC, and NC
Deaths: 0
Damage: MINIMAL
Landfalls: 0 (Passed very close to North Carolina)
Synopsis: TS Cristobal formed from a stalled frontal boundary off the southeast coast. Its major impact was rain but did bring tropical storm force wind to NC.
Verdict: Since Cristobal did not kill any people and only caused minimal damage, it will not be retired.

Dolly July 20-25
Intensity: Cat. 2 Hurricane (100mph)
Areas Impacted: Guatemala, Belize, Mexico (Yucatan), Mexico,  and TX
Deaths: 22
Damage: 1.52 Billion USD
Landfalls: 2
Synopsis: TS Dolly formed from a strong tropical wave that was tracked across the Atlantic. Forming in the Caribbean Sea, Dolly made its first landfall in Cancun as a tropical storm and became a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Dolly's final landfall was on South Padre Island as a Cat. 2 Hurricane. It remnants later impacted western Texas, Mexico, and New Mexico.
Verdict: Dolly was a billion dollar storm but pales in comparison to the damage future storms would cause. I give it a 25% chance of being retired.

Edouard August 3-7
Intensity: TS (65mph)
Areas Impacted: LA and TX
Deaths: 0
Damage: MINIMAL
Landfalls: 1
Synopsis: TS Edouard formed from a decaying MCS that moved into the Gulf of Mexico. It brought tropical storm force winds to Lousianna and Texas.
Verdict: Since Edouard did not kill any people and likely caused only minimal damage, it will not be retired.

Fay August 15-26
Intensity: TS (65mph)
Areas Impacted: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, FL, GA, AL, and MS
Deaths: 36
Damage: Unknown
Landfalls: 7
Synopsis: TS Fay formed over the Dominican Republic and moved west impacting Cuba. Fay made landfall in Florida four times which is unpresidented. Fay killed an estimated 36 people and it looks like it caused 60-80 Million USD in damage in Florida.
Verdict: Fay probably won't be a billion dollar event and never became a hurricane. I give it a 20% chance of being retired. Fay was annoying but not devastating.

Gustav August 25-September 4
Intensity: Cat. 4 Hurricane (150mph)
Areas Impacted: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamica, Caymans, Cuba, FL, GA, AL, MS, and LA
Deaths: 138
Damage: 18 Billion USD
Landfalls: 5
Synopsis: Gustav formed from a tropical wave that quickly developed south of Hatti. After weakening from a 90mph Hurricane to a 40mph tropical storm, Gustav reintensified and became a powerful 150mph Hurricane before impacting Cuba. Gustav weakened to a Cat. 2 Hurricane before making landfall in Louisianna.
Verdict: Pending future storms, especially Ike, Gustav is could be the coastliest tropical cyclone of the season. An estimate of 20 Billion dollars has been attributed to Gustav. The hurricane also killed at least 100 people. I give this storm a 85% chance of being retired.

Hanna August 28-September 7
Intensity: Cat. 1 Hurricane (80mph)
Areas Impacted: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, US East Coast (FL to MA)
Deaths: 537
Damage: Unknown
Landfalls: 4
Synopsis: TS Hanna formed from a tropical wave and did a large loop near the Bahamas. Most of the deaths and damage associated from Hanna will be in Hispanolia. Reports from yesterday indicate minimal damage occured in the United States from Hanna. Hanna is the third tropical storm to make landfall in New England this decade behind Beryl (2006) and Hermine (2004). None of these storms caused major damage.
Verdict: Hanna may be retired soley based on the deaths in Hatti. I give it a 50% chance of being retired.

Ike September 1-14
Intensity: Cat. 4 Hurricane (145mph)
Areas Impacted: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba, FL, LA, TX
Deaths: 379* (Includes 202 Missing)
Damage: 31.5 Billion USD
Landfalls: 5
Synopsis: Replacing the retired Isidore, Ike was a very powerful Cat. 4 Hurricane that severely impacted Texas. Significant damage was done to Houston and Galveston and some communities were wiped off the map. Ike looks to be the third coastliest US Hurricane behind Katrina and Andrew. 
Verdict: There is no doubt this will be the only Atlantic TC named Ike.

Josephine September 2-6
Intensity: TS (65mph)
Areas Impacted: Cape Verde Islands
Deaths: 0
Damage: NONE
Landfalls: 0
Synopsis: Josephine was a short lived Cape Verde type system that disspated in the open ocean.
Verdict: Josephine did not impact land and will not be retired.

Kyle September 25-29
Intensity: Cat. 1 Hurricane (80mph)
Areas Impacted: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick 
Deaths: 4
Damage: 14 Million USD
Landfalls: 1
Synopsis: The precurssor wave of Hurricane Kyle caused flooding rain on Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Kyle caused minor damage to Canada.
Verdict: Since it caused only minor damage, Kyle will not be retired.

Laura September 29-October 1
Intensity: TS (60mph)
Areas Impacted: NONE
Deaths: 0
Damage: NONE
Landfalls: 0
Synopsis: Laura was an extratropical system that briefly became tropical before loosing tropical characteristics in the open ocean.
Verdict: Laura did not impact land and will not be retired.

Marco October 6-8
Intensity: TS (65mph)
Areas Impacted: Mexico
Deaths: 0
Damage: NONE
Landfalls: 1
Synopsis: Marco may become the record holder for smallest tropical cyclone beating Cyclone Tracy.
Verdict: Because Marco was such a small storm, damage will not be enough to earn retirement.

Nana October 12-14
Intensity: TS (40mph)
Areas Impacted: NONE
Deaths: 0
Damage: NONE
Landfalls: 0
Synopsis: Nana was a short lived Cape Verde type system that disspated in the open ocean.
Verdict: Nana did not impact land and will not be retired.

Omar October 13-18
Intensity: Cat. 4 Hurricane (135mph)
Areas Impacted: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, other Caribbean Islands
Deaths: 2
Damage: $46 Million+
Landfalls: 0
Synopsis: Omar was a powerful storm that never made a direct landfall but did cause significant damage to some islands.
Verdict: Omar did cause damage to many islands and it is possible it will get retired. This is the first time the name Omar has been used.

Paloma November 5-10
Intensity: Cat. 4 Hurricane (145mph)
Areas Impacted: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, other Caribbean Islands
Deaths: 1
Damage: $1.6 Billion+
Landfalls: 2
Synopsis: Paloma was a very rare November Major Hurricane. It was the third major hurricane to impact Cuba this year.
Verdict: While it killed only one person, Paloma caused over a Billion USD in damages and therefore has a good chance of getting retired. I think only Gustav and Ike have better odds of being retired. This is the first time the name Paloma has been used.

To summarize:
Arthur: No
Bertha: No
Cristobal: No
Dolly: Possible (25%)
Edouard: No
Fay: Unlikely (20%)
Gustav: Likely (90%)
Hanna: Probable (60%)
Ike: Definitely (100%)
Josephine: No
Kyle: No
Laura: No
Marco: No
Nana: No
Omar: Probable (50%)
Paloma: Likely (85%)