Hannah Could Do Some Damage In Florida
Posted: (August 30, 2008 05:45 pm)

I absolutely love the latest track off the European model concerning Tropical Storm Hannah. Quite honestly I think it just about hit it dead on this time around. If you haven't seen it yet it runs the storm westward through the Bahamas over the next couple of days and then turns it more towards the northwest striking Miami Thursday evening. It then continues on its northwest track paralleling the eastern Florida coast through Friday morning. Now the good news with this track is it keeps the strongest part of the storm off the coast. But the bad news is, it wasn't too long ago that Tropical Storm Fay brought major flooding to this part of the country. Another storm of this magnitude would seriously aggravate the situation. And guess what? Hannah is expected to be stronger than Fay was. Now I have to admit, over the past couple of days I have mentioned that Hannah would move farther north and stike southern Florida. But I then had it crossing over southern Florida and turning north into the Gulf moving into the Big Bend region of Florida. Now it llooks like the high pressure system sitting over the northeast will clear the area a little quicker allowing Hannah to move northwest sooner. So it may make that northward turn very close to the peninsula instead of west of it. We'll see what happens. But I do like the thinking here.

Isn't it amazing just how bad the US models can be sometimes!? The past two days they have showed Hannah diving off to the southwest over time and heading towards the Turks and Caicos Islands, approaching the northern coast of Cuba. I guess this would be a perfect example of why days four and five of the extended track should be looked at closely but not etched in stone. It's sort of like my posts this past winter when the forecast models would show an east coast snow storm. Everyone would get all excited and then I would post my blog saying the storm will head out to sea. What happened? Everyone got upset at me and asked me how I could predict something like that when the models weren't showing it at the time. Well, the same rules back then apply even now. Its about noticing the pattern first. The models then catch on later. Remember there used as guidence. 

Watch what happens over the next couple of days. The US models will continue to trend this storm farther northwest agreeing with the European (or at least they should). The National Hurricane Center in response will continue to shift there track to the northwest as well. Eventually the track should look pretty close to what the European shows now. Although again, Im not sure if it gets quite as far northwest as what the GDEX currently shows which slams Myrtle Beach South Carolina. And I do mean slams! I am sticking to my guns here and saying that Hannah strikes Miami as a MAJOR hurricane.

Look at the track below....wasn't it just yesterday that the NHC had this thing diving off to the southwest making a complete lefthand turn? Pretty amazing isn't it!? For all of you following this storm at home continue to monitor the European. It has done a good job with this thing so far. So good in fact that my Miami call may be a little too far south now! lol

Everyone in southern Florida should continue to monitor this storm very carefully over the next couple of days. This will not stay a Tropical Storm through Tuesday as the National Hurricane Center is showing. It will begin gathering strength.

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