Hannah....Midday Update (8/30)
Posted: (August 30, 2008 12:22 pm)

Although there hasn't been that much change in the strength of Hannah over the past 12 hours the structure and track of the storm have begun to agree with my thinking over the past couple of days. Looking at the latest satellite image an explosion of deep convection develop early this morning. This is the first signs of the intensifying process that Hannah will continue to undergo over the next two to three days. First the convection, then the outflow (breathing) and then the deepening (strengthening). So the next thing to look for with the satellite image would be the outflow bands moving outward from the center. An example of this would be....if you were looking at a colored cloud top image you would look for the dark red colors near the center of the storm followed by the oranges as you move away from the center. This would then be followed by the whites moving further away from that.

Once that starts happening, which should be within the next 36 hours or so, the pressures will begin to fall and the surface winds will begin to intensify. Some indications are that Hannah could become a hurricane by Sunday night. As of 11:00am EDT Hannah was reporting winds of 50 mph with some higher gusts that extended 95 miles outwards from the center. The movement was towards the west at 8 mph. 

Hannah's track has shifted slightly this morning. That gradual turn towards the west has already begun and  should continue over the next couple of days. Now the NHC has adjusted the track and is not progressing the storm to the southwest by the beginning of next week. Instead it moves the storm due west through the southern portions of the Bahamas approaching southern Florida by mid-week. Sort of  in a similar fashion as to what I suggested yesterday. I still think the track will be slightly farther north than what is being shown now. Enough so to where the southern tip of Florida and/or the Florida Keys could take a direct hit. 

Ocean temperatures are very warm in this region and strengthening will continue over the next several days. Even though it will be gradual at first, this storm is getting itself better organized now. At this time, even though most of the forecast models aren't showing it,  i think it will be a hurricane by Sunday Night. All interests in the Bahamas and southern Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Hannah very closely over the next few days.