Posted: (November 21, 2008 01:39 pm)
Winter is off to a fast start for the east coast, everyone has been colder than normal and for some we are off to the snowiest start in 20+ years. The Lake Streamers pluc upper low dumped 2-4" in some areas of the Philly Metro area today. Some roads were closed as numerous accidents occured as motorists were a little unprepared for the early season snowfall. So the pattern does stay active and next up will be Monday afternoon and evening, November 24.
The NAM is about a run away from picking up the system in it's time frame of 84 hours. We'll get a look at the NAM after 10pm tonight. The GFS has .28" of liquid but how are the temps aloft and at the surface. Lets look at the models below and compare notes at this point. My early call is rain/snow mix to snow showers as colder air come in on the later half of the storm.
| SNOW POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY 11-24 BOSTON TO DC METRO ( GFS MODEL 7AM FRI ) | ||||||
| CITY | PRECIP | THICKNESS | 5,500/850MB | SURFACE TEMP | MY CALL | NOTES |
|
PHILLY |
.28" |
538 TO 528 |
29 TO 24 |
36.7 TO 33.8 |
1" |
ISSUE AT 2,000 FEET |
|
LEHIGH VLY |
.27" |
536 TO 528 |
28 TO 25 |
32.7 TO 32.1 |
2-3" |
COULD BE ALL SNOW |
|
POCONOS |
.23" |
535 TO 528 |
27 TO 23 |
31.5 TO 31.2 |
1-3" |
ALL SNOW AT THIS POINT |
|
A.C. METR0 |
.49" |
541 TO 528 |
30 TO 25 |
44.8 TO 38.1 |
RAIN |
TO WARM FOR SNOW |
|
NYC METRO |
.28" |
538 TO 531 |
31 TO 26 |
37.9 TO 34.1 |
RAIN/WET SNOW |
NO ACCUM., TO WARM |
|
BALTIMORE |
.32" |
537 TO 536 |
31 TO 21 |
38.5 TO 32.5 |
RAIN TO SNW (1") |
RAIN TO WET SNOW POSS. |
|
D.C. METRO |
.23" |
537 TO 528 |
33 TO 25 |
38.1 TO 37.4 |
RAIN SHOWERS |
TO WARM FOR SNOW |
|
BOSTON |
1.08" |
543 TO 530 |
37 TO 25 |
49.0 TO 41.8 |
HEAVY RAIN ? |
WARM SIDE...RIGHT NOW |
We'll look at the Candian CFC, NOGAPS, Euro and others in the later run tonight or tomorrow morning. Ya just gotta love this pattern if you love snow !
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Hey Rob
Posted: (November 21, 2008 10:28 pm) by: FFBlizzard
Nice job, could you add in another row for us in the NW Suburbs. Northern Chester, Western Montco, and Lower Berks. We are sort of in between the city's forecast and Lehigh Valley's on the chart. We always seem to be the battleground area for snow, sleet, ice, and rain. By the way the early snow is great, I had to drive with the Heavy band today from State College to Harrisburg before I finally left the snow getting on the Pike for Morgantown. My truck was covered with an inch of snow and ice in the front. Had to take it to the car wash to get it all off.
Thanks
Jon
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Cape Hatteras???
Posted: (November 21, 2008 03:53 pm) by: KevinReilly
Yep that's right it was snowing in Cape Hatteras today!!!
November 21st!!! Let alone any year!!
Kevin
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quick notes..
Posted: (November 21, 2008 02:37 pm) by: irishbri74
models had a tough time with cold air and wintery precip so far. oct28 and todays event. SHould get even more interesting as the event draws near.
Hey rob, thanks for posting, blog scene had been kinda quiet during your move. Nice work on your winter outlook as well. Always look forward to that.
[Online]
Good Stuff Rob
Posted: (November 21, 2008 02:23 pm) by: dag110704
Keep up the good work! It's nice to know we can still rely on you! THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!
[Online]
Love it Rob..
Posted: (November 21, 2008 02:11 pm) by: thedude11
A lot of people on weather forums continue to say the 24th storm looks sucky.... They need to remember this is November. This is a treat.
As for the 24/25 storm, the GFS looks to start it off as rain, and change it over to a mix of snow and sleet, which is a real pain forecasting. You current call looks pretty good. Keep us informed Rob. I love it. Good call today on the snow forecasts. Numerous weather stations said no accumulation for today. What in the world are they looking at. It's sad Rob.
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Just A Hunch
Posted: (November 21, 2008 02:10 pm) by: KevinReilly
How does the cold air hang around. Are the models under doing the cold. I talked about the snow band last night I thought some areas could get a whitening of the ground up to 1 inch I was just shocked at almost 4 inches in Media.
One thing I was thinking is wow the low level moisture went from very dry to moist and there were weak surface winds. I really thought those streamers from the lakes in combination with a light NE to E wind around the upper low would do the trick and boy did they.
Partly sunny now.
Kevin
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