Powerful Paloma rolls near Florida as a CAT 3
Posted: (November 08, 2008 09:03 pm)

This is only the third time we have gone as far as the letter "P" on the names of hurricanes and Paloma is certainly making waves at this hour.  The storm has winds of 120mph and looks to be close but not the core over Florida.  Below are the latest stats for the storm and where it is going.

Paloma will get carved up pretty good as it will move slowly over the mountains of Cuba. This should drop it down to tropical storm status maybe lower.  Central Cuba is getting hammered right now and it will be interesting to see pictures out of the region tomorrow.  The Cuban government usually does not release much from disasters.

Not sure if Ibuy into the GFS (red) thinking here. I do see the thinking of the system turning AROUND since it will stall later in the period (next week) 


Well the ensemble shows pretty much what the models show.  That straits of FLA track is quite interesting if this can get over Cuba much faster.  The net result is
this will bring maybe over 30" of rain to Cuba and maybe over 10-15" in the keys depending in the track.

The NHC has been closer than the models but all have been to far west with the projections so far.  If this trend stays we'll see this go more toward the 
Turks in the Bahamas area.  It is rare for this time in November for a system to go again the grain and turn West and SW but it does happen on occasion.




History shows that the storm will bounce out to sea and I am leaning that way right now vs. the lopp around. My thinking is 60% out to sea 40% loop back through the Straits of Florida. Cuba is carving the storm up now so flooding will be the issue for Cuba, the keys and maybe even South FLA the next few days.