September 3rd, 2008: Possible tracks for Hanna and Ike
Posted: (September 03, 2008 12:40 pm)

TS Hanna: Models continue to shift east and the NHC has even followed this trend. With a track that is closer to the coast, tropical storm conditions are likely this weekend from north Florida to south Maine. Hanna is expected to regain Cat. 1 Hurricane intensity prior to landfall. After analyzing storms with a similar tracks to Hanna, I believe there are two likely possibilities:

1. A Floyd-like track (South Carolina/Western North Carolina)
This is close to the NHC track. This would result in a faster weakening trend with more land interaction. In this case, New England would get more rain then wind and northern New England would also get wet. Hanna may also become extratropical prior to reaching New England meaning northern New England would get the rain and the Cape and the Islands would get most of the wind.

2. A Bob-like track (Eastern North Carolina/Southeastern New England)
This track takes the center over or near eastern North Carolina and into New England. Hanna would have a better chance remaining tropical in this case. As a tropical cyclone, rain will be more symmetrical and wind will be near the center. The further up the North Carolina coast Hanna makes landfall, the more likely this probability will occur.

TS Ike: Ike is near hurricane force and will likely be a hurricane at 5pm. While Hanna moves along the western side of the ridge, Ike will be moving along the southern edge. Ike is expected to become a major hurricane meaning a possible blow to the Bahamas in 5 days. If the ridge to its north expands west over New England, a track west towards Florida and the GOMEX is expected. A track similar to 1992's Hurricane Andrew (in track, not intensity) is my current prediction.

TS Josephine: Josephine is also getting stringer but shear and cooler SSTs are expected to weaken this storm.

Next Blog: Tomorrow or Firday depending on if there are any major changes with Hanna or Ike.