August 30th, 2008: Hurricane Gustav, TS Hanna, and TD #9?
Posted: (August 30, 2008 12:55 pm)

Its been a busy few weeks and I have been too busy to make a long post. Today is my final day in Chicago so this will be my final blog from the Midwest, at least for now. I'll start with the Atlantic troubles and then recap all tropical cyclones that we have seen in the last 14 days.

Gustav: Hurricane Gustav has had an interesting track so far. The tropical wave that became Gustav exhibited an "eye-like" feature on as Monday began. This storm quickly organized and became a hurricane in just 18 hours. Gustav made its first landfall in Hatti as a Cat. 1 Hurricane and weakened due to the high terrain. Gustav then moved towards the southwest and impacted Jamaica as a strong tropical storm. Unlike Hatti, this island nation only weakened Gustav slightly and Gustav became a hurricane again yesterday. Yesterday, Gustav pounded the Cayman Islands as an intensifying hurricane. These islands did nothing to impact Gustav.  Last night, Gustav underwent rapid intensification and is now a 125mph Cat. 3 (Major) Hurricane. 

The offical forecast calls for Gustav to beome a Cat. 4 Hurricane. The track is grim to say the least. We can only hope that the levees in New Orleans can hold. I was in New Orleans in January and some neighborhoods look as if Katrinia hit yesterday and the people can't handle another blow right now. People need to evacuate now while there is still time. Three years ago today, Katrinia left most of that city 80% underwater. What can save the city? Some models indicate a turn towards the left indicating a track closer to Texas. This, however, could lead to devastation in cites like Houston and Galveston. Regardless of landfall, the oil industry is about to take a powerful hit so get ready for high gas prices, higher then we have ever seen if Gustav takes the nightmare path.

What if we compare the track of Katrina to this expected Gustav track? Katrina was more powerful and much larger which resulted in the record storm surge. That hurricane passed about 30 miles east of New Orleans meaning that the strongest part of the storm, the right front quadrant, missed the Cresent City. The worse case senario here is if Gustav passes over of just to the west of New Orleans. That would put the city in the eyewall and the dangerous right front quadrant. We can only hope that Gustav somehow misses the coasts of Lousianna and northern Texas.



Interesting Fact: Gustav will be the fifth named storm this year to bring tropical storm force winds to the United States and the fourth to make landfall. Cristobal did not make landfall but did bring tropical storm force winds to parts of North Carolina. Dolly brought tropical storm and hurricane force winds to southern Texas, TS Edouard impacted northern Texas and SW Louisanna, and TS Fay brough tropical storm force winds to all but six of Florida's counties as well as portions of Georgia.



Hanna: On Thursday, a disturbed area of weather northeast of Gustav became TS Hanna, the eigth named storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season. Fortunately, Hanna has been sheared since its genesis and is expected to remain below hurricane force over the next five days. The official track takes TS Hanna west into the Bahamas. From there, Hanna will either continue west into the Gulf of Mexico, hit the east coast of Florida, or move north potentially impacting the eastern seaboard. Unfortuantely, I think the first possibility is most likely meaning places that were impacted by Fay and/or will be impacted by Gustav will see winds from Hanna by next weekend. 

Rest of the Atlantic: The NHC is watching two tropical disturbances. One located near 21N 43.5W is disorganized but does have a weak and broad circulation. Development is unlikely and I give it a 15% chance of development. A new tropical wave located near 16N 26W is impacting the Cape Verde Islands and may become a tropical depression at any time. I give the system a 75% chance of development. If it became a tropical storm, the next name is Ike (Replacing 2002's Isidore).



Atlantic Basin Recap: Last time, we were dealing with TS Fay. Fay turned out to be a major thorn in Florida's side and made landfalls in the state. Fay brought tropical storm force winds to all but six of Florida's counties. Fay brought much needed rain to some areas of the southeast and saturated other areas. Fay was noted for forming inland and skipping the tropical depression phase. Fay will also be noted for the many landfalls and the loss of life (36), mainly in Hatti.



EPAC Basin Recap: TS Iselle dissipated two weeks ago without impacting land. August has been relatively quiet and it looks unlikely that we will have an unsually active season, at least in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes. On August 23rd, we saw the tenth named storm of the 2008 EPAC Hurricane seaon (Julio) form. Unlike Iselle, Julio did impact land. Julio made landfall in La Paz, Mexico as a strong tropical storm and is the third tropical cyclone to make landfall in Pacific Mexico behind TS Alma and TD 5E.

WPAC Basin Recap: Three tropical cyclones have impacted the WPAC over the past 2 weeks. TS Vongfong passed well east of Japan without threatening land. Typhoon Nuri (Karen) impacted Luzon as a Cat. 2 Typhoon and China as a weak Tropical Storm. Finally, TS 14W (TD Lawin) also passed near Luzon but was less destructive then Typhoon Nuri (Karen).

Next Blog: Probably early next week and Hurricane Gustav bears down on the Gulf Coast. See you in Massachusetts!