Severe Weather Wednesday
Posted: (July 29, 2008 11:30 pm)

Threat for a few severe storms mainly in the DELMARVA region

Storms can pop up anywhere tomorrow but the greatest chance for organized storms will be across DE/MD/VA.  The reasoning is simply because of the location of the greatest instability parameters combined with forcing from a s/w. Latest forecast soundings show the potential for an isolated tornado with these storms that form.  The sfc winds will be out of the south with a sharp turn to the west aloft creating favorable directional shear for storm rotation.  Vertical shear profiles will be sufficient enough for storm organization creating main threats for damaging winds with widespread temp/dewpoints at sfc.  Hail will not be a major threat like the last severe outbreak we had due to warmer temps aloft, but small hail is possible in the stronger storms that form.  With very weak winds in the low levels towards the sfc the temps will fall quick but models show instability at its highest after sunset as cloud bases lower and moisture holds its ground into the nighttime.  

If you are caught in these storms you should expect heavy rains and damaging winds.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with shear profiles being favorable so keep alert of the situation tomorrow afternoon.