If you haven't read some of the earlier posts on the forecast for this upcoming holiday weekend across the Tri-State area (Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey) we've been concerned about an approaching cold front. This front will crawl through the Mason- Dixon Line and act like train tracks for a series of disturbances to ride along through Saturday. Each disturbance will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms. They will be scattered, so not everyone will see them. But those of us that do see them may have to have a pretty good indoor backup plan for a while. As of right now it looks like the chances of rain and thunderstorms increases as the weekend progresses.
Here's the latest forecast guidence coming in as of 10:30am Thursday. Right off the bat i'll tell you that there really isn't all that much that has changed here. There's the threat of a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon out ahead of the approaching cold front for central Pennsylvania with the peek heating of the day. These storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds. But I stress that they will be scattered at best across this area. Once the sun begins to set these storms will lose there heat source and begin to weaken substantially.
The front then begins to slow overtop of the area becoming the focal point, the train tracks if you will for another disturbance which cold bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms to western and central Pennsylvania during the day on Friday. The morning and early afternoon looks dry for the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys points east.
At the same time, another mini disturbance will be moving northeast out of Cincinnati. This system follows the tracks (front) and moves into western Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh) setting up scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area for your fireworks shows on the 4th. They will be more numerous across central Pennsylvania and very hit or miss in the Delaware Valley.
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FIREWORKS FORECAST (FRIDAY EVENING)
Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Reading, Hazelton) ....... 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Delaware Valley (Philadelphia, Trenton, Glassboro, Wilmington, Dover, Chester) .... 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Jersey Shore (Belmawr to Cape May) .... Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of an isolated shower or storm.
Central Pennsylvania (Harrisburg, Williamsport, Lancaster, York, Getteysburg) ..... 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Western Pennsylvania (Johnstown, State College, Pittsburgh) ..... 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
