WINTER OUTLOOK 2008-2009 PHILLY-SNJ-DE-S.E. PA-LEHIGH VALLEY
Posted: (November 17, 2008 01:10 am)

So here we are ready to roll into the winter of 2008-2009.  The Philly Metro area had a great Championship in the fall classic so maybe just maybe we can have a Championship winter with a Brad Lidge like 1996 Blizzard Blaster ending !  No doubt about it this will be a winter of surprises. Why ?  One of the main reasons is no La Nina or El Nino influence.  Sure we may get a little LA NINA in the end of the winter but that is only rumor and just too far away to predict at this point so lets move on.

The winter will be one of LA NADA from the big two players in the East, El Nino/La Nina. LA NADA as you can tell means NADA from these two signals so we have to dig deeper for some answers to what may dictate this winter’s pattern.  
====================================================================================================================
GOT YOUR MOJO ? OH BEHAVE !

I like to call it the MOJO or Madden-Jullian Oscillation.  The MOJO pattern is one that grabs tropical moisture from the Pacific West and puts some energy into the storms sliding across the Pacific. This patter n is more present with the ENSO or EL Nino Southern Oscillation.  I see some MOJO working here but maybe not as much as an EL NINO pattern.  So with less MoJo for the East coast from the PAC WEST storms lets look some more.  I’m not saying these systems will not happen it’s just the odds are a little less of the big soggy storm  rolling into Southern California and moving across the Gulf and off the Carolina Coast.




====================================================================================================================

PDO or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…(P lease D ump On !)

Now like the MoJo the PDO also has a little less effect on the East Coast as the West Coast.  This pattern looks to drive off the predicted warmer than normal Gulf of Alaska waters. It would drive the pattern to the PAC NW or Seattle Area.  This is where the fun begins, after the trip through the Rockies.
                    warm phase                                                cool phase


Looking at the cycle above the cool phase is one where the Gulf of Alaska is warmer and that creates a pattern for bigger storms
to enter the Pacific Northwest and maybe the East Coast.

Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: "cool" PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while "warm" PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Shoshiro Minobe  has shown that 20th century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities, one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years.  1977 WAS A BIG WINTER YEAR AND SEVERAL BIG STORMS IN THE 80S AND 90S.

====================================================================================================================
ARCTIC OSCILLATION (THE ACE IN THE HOLE)

The Arctic Oscillation will have a bigger influence this winter because of the lack of the other players above.  The periods of cold weather will be VERY VERY IMPORTANT in getting the Okie blasters to come east and gas up on the Atlantic and Gulf. More on the Okie Blasters in a few minutes.   Just remember that we need the NAO/Okie Blasters and AO to be on the same page this winter to bring home the snow championship like our Beloved Phillies.




NAO…Our friend indeed this winter… GO NEGATIVE AND LET THE MADDNESSS BEGIN !

Effects of the Positive Phase      |     Effects of the Negative Phase
of the Arctic Oscillation                    of the Arctic Oscillation

(Figures courtesy of J. Wallace, University of Washington)
==================================================================

No doubt about it this winter this is the WILD CARD and biggest player for the east coast just behind the OKIE BLASTER.  The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation will be 60% negative this winter 40% positive or Neutral.  The biggest storms on the East Coast come off a NEGATIVE or –NAO pattern.  We also get some pretty big storms going from Negative into neutral patterns so let’s watch this very carefully this winter. My feeling is this is going to dip in early December with small snow event in the December 1-15 period.  Sorta the appetizer before the main course in Mid January.

The NAO should drop pretty this winter in the Jan 11-22 period with that being the biggest chance of a 10”+ snow this winter from NYC to Washington DC including Philly.  When the NAO is Positive it will not sit in the positive range like it did last winter.  It will be brief but when it’s warm it will be real mild.

The AO or Arctic Oscillation will do best when it ties in with the NAO and they tele-connect via the CROSS POLAR FLOW. Sounds kinda complex but just think of it as when a big trough sets up in the East as in East of Chicago we need to connect on it with the AO like a long pass to DeShawn Jackson.  Lets just hope this happen more than the Eagles are doing now !



ABOVE IS THE NEGATIVE PHASE THAT BRINGS STORMS TO THE EAST COAST

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABOVE IS THE DRIER/MILDER STAGE OF A POSITIVE NAO.

====================================================================================================================
OKIE FROM SKOKIE WHERE DO YOU WANT TO GO ?

The pattern this winter dictates one of developing a LOW in the Oklahoma/Northern Texas Area. Whether this is off a diving system from Seattle (MOJO pattern) or one that is the classic Cali Cruiser it really doesn’t matter. This is where the system will load off the GULF and make a play. If the play is to the north toward Chicago we get the snow to mix rain deal or even just rain. If this system can attach onto the NAO/AO thinking we’ll game on for the East Coast. Again I go with 60% OKIE-NC-COD track (Oklahoma-NC Coast-Cape Cod).  That means odds are greater this year than the past 2 winters we will have above normal snowfall…yeah you heard me right.  Now don’t go out and get a yard stick just YET ! 

The OKIE from Skokie will go 40% north and that will mean the usual slushy to wet mess so we now have to figure how many white Skokies  we get vs. sloppy skokies.  The White Skokie’s will change names to Nor’easters once they hit the NC Coast, so don’t worry about some hillbillies busting up our winter party.

The LOW drops off from Idaho and dives down. This would be the case with a MoJo and PDO possible pattern.	We have seen fronts like this setting up this fall and the pattern looks to be the same for a good part of the winter, esp. December 1 to January 15.

Ya gotta tap the GULF to get it going. Dont look at the dates on here it's the pattern we need to follow this winter to get it all going	Storms will dive around the huge single & sometimes double barrell HIGHS in the desert Southwest. The SW will be milder but it should be colder in the east.

The idea this winter is to have a LOW dive down slong the Rockies	The moist air should be in place for the LOW to feed off from as it drives south.
The makes a move through Colorado. It starts to Tap the Gulf once it reaches the Panhandle of Texas	We are expecting the HIGH to be in Nevada for 60-70% of the winter, so you can see how this may come all together.

====================================================================================================================

WHEN WILL WE BE IN THE "STORMY" PHASE ?

My thinking is January 10^th to February 15^th is the real winter for us this year. I do think we get an early taste in Early December but the real deal comes in the heart of winter itself.  Climatology shows that 60% of winters in a Neutral or LA NADA pattern bring average to above average snowfall and slightly BELOW normal temps. I am really zoning in on that number of 60% for many reasons so when you see the numbers on the other blog you will see how I came up with the snowfall and temps. 

I do think this is a uniform winter where not one place will get like well above average it looks like 60% of the normal or 10% above the average snowfall for the area. PLEASE REFER TO OTHER BLOG ON TEMPS & SNOW FOR YOUR AREA. BRING ON THE SNOW !
====================================================================================================================