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Posted: (November 15, 2008 12:14 pm)
As we here at Myweatherlive begin to put the final pieces of this winter outlook together we are more and more convinced that this will be a "LA NADA" winter. What that means is not strong signal from LA NINA or EL NINO. We do have some signals of a weak LA NINA toward the end of winter but that looks to be a non-factor at this point. So with no real signal and a "LA NADA" pattern we are focusing and putting the final touches on the following data.
--MADDEN-JULLIAN OSCILLATION or as we will call it the MOJO
--PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION or PDO (This could more of the a signal for the West and West Coast.
--CLIMATOLOGY IN "LA NADA: WINTER....yeah this favors more snow for some....love that
--ARCTIC OSCILLATION or AO...This will swing throughout the winter
--NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATION or NAO....Like the AO this will swing this winter and could be the biggest factor on the East Coast.
So what is the CPC (Climate Prediction Center Saying for the nation this winter.....
You don't get much here except that the Midwest is going to be warmer than normal. That could mean the storm tracks head up to Minnesota and bring along the warmer Gulf air with it. This could make for interesting swings in weather along the East Coast. Warm and Stormy one week, Snowy and Cold the next, the key for the east may very well be the NAO this winter. It could be the "ACE" card in this poker game of the Winter Outlook.
The thinking here from the CPC is that most of the storms dip down from Oregon and/or Washington State. Latch onto Gulf Moisture over Oklahoma and build a storm from there. If the NAO goes NEGATIVE the storm breaks off to the Carolina coast, if we have a Positive Pattern on the NAO that system or "A" you see in Oklahoma runs to Minnesota-Michigan. This again supports my theory of Wild Swings in temps and storms this winter. As warm as it could get in the east, yeah a few days in the 60s & 70s we could see the hammer on the other side with Snow and nasty temps in the teens. I do think this winter has at least one good 10" storm for the east coast.
Ok enough with the winter teaser here, the rest of the winter story in two days. Enjoy the milder east coast weekend.
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Predictions
Posted: (November 16, 2008 12:15 pm) by: GeorgeR
Since everyone is making predictions, I'll predict that on January 23rd it will be colder north of the Carolinas than it will be to the south of the Carolinas.
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Nada?
Posted: (November 15, 2008 06:15 pm) by: 78YANKS
That is a term used for... Nothing, correct.. It goes like this . Hay how many fish did you catch yesterday, and I reply by saying Nada, meaning none.. I hope this La Nada pattern means (Much'o Snow'a)...
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1996
Posted: (November 15, 2008 06:09 pm) by: 78YANKS
This sounds like 1996, every other storm was rain, the pattern went either west of us and got warm and dumped rain. Then the next storm went up the coast and dumped snow and cold, only to be washed away within a week with another west runner, and so it went. the Blizzard of Jan 7th was gone within a week remember...
