HURRICANE IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY 4, FLORIDA AND GULF ARE NEXT.
Posted: (September 06, 2008 05:51 pm)

Hurricane IKE has moved back up to a Category 4 this evening with winds of 135mph.  This is a very dangerous storm. Computer models show a track through the Straits of Florida, skim Cuba and head into the Gulf of Mexico.  A number of models do bring this to New Orleans but this is still too early to make a call like that.

Hurricane Ike System Track (2008)   view table
Adv #		Advisory Date (UTC)	Name (UTC)	Position		Direction	Speed mph (kts)	Pressure mb (in)	Winds mph (kts)
				Lat	Lon
	23	2100 SAT SEP 06	Hurricane Ike	21.4N	69.7W	WSW	15 (13)	949 (28.02)	135 (117)
	22A	1800 SAT SEP 06	Hurricane Ike	21.6N	69.1W	WSW	15 (13)	956 (28.23)	115 (100)
	22	1500 SAT SEP 06	Hurricane Ike	21.9N	68.8W	WSW	16 (14)	960 (28.35)	110 (96)
	21A	1200 SAT SEP 06	Hurricane Ike	22N	67.9W	WSW	16 (14)	962 (28.41)	115 (100)

Looking at the satellite imagery above this is a Category. The shear earlier was 25 knots earlier but has dropped of to 10-15 knots.  The waters are warm ahead of IKE and water vapor shows no dry air. This should stay a Category 4 overnight tonight as it crosses the Bahama Islands.

SO WHERE IS IKE GOING ?




The computer models are actually pretty close on the track of IKE.  It shows a westward run along the Northern coast of Cuba. After that is turns NW into the open GULF.  Now remember Gustav was a CAT 4 off the north coast of Cuba, it weakened as dry air got into the system.  How much upwelling occurred over the Gulf of Mexico from Gustav ?  You do need 80 water temps down about 30-50 feet to really sustain a storm.  We did have a situation like this in 1947 with back to back storm.  One was a CAT 5 that slammed South Florida but never recovered as it moved to New Orleans.  It did go as a CAT 1 but looking at the time of year that hit you have to wonder if the storm before that (3 weeks earlier) did some upwelling.

I am thinking this will be in the GULF at this point, the question is how much crosses Cuba and what does it do to IKE ?  We'll know in the next 36 hours.



The Shear Tendency shows NO SHEAR west of IKE and I do not see much going on the next 3 days.  So the interaction with Cuba may be the only issue the next 3 days.  I did notice the trough/front slidind down into Texas and Louisiana.  That could be a factor if it makes it far enough south.

The water vapor shows a little dry air in the Central Gulf at this hour but this is not a factor.  Plenty of DRY AIR off the coast of Texas and NE of that.  We'll have to keep an eye on the dry air and see how far south it makes it.

STEERING LAYER....LOWER LEVELS....



The Lower Level Steering shows a big HIGH over NE Texas.  This will slide eastward and keep IKE Westward into the Gulf. After that the storm will flow around the west side of the HIGH and move it NW.  I do see the thinking on the HIGH sliding eastward.

UPPER LEVEL STEERING.....

The Upper Level Steering shows a pretty good flow dipping down to the Gulf States. This could cause the storm to head into the Gulf and at the last 100 miles start to hook to the right.  This would mean New Orleans to Florida Panhandle could be the landfall of IKE.



The historical data above now shows several tracks heading into the Gulf.  Most look to come off a HIGH up north and slide NW.  They do hook inland as the get pulled by troughs.  

MY THINKING AT THIS POINT ON IKE.

This will probaly be the storm of the season in many ways.  Short term tracking shows a west run into the Northern side of Cuba.  The eastern part of Cuba has some big mountains so we'll see some disruption in the circulation.  After that the issue is upwelling of Gustav and any fronts from the NW.  I do think this will drop to a CAT 3, over cuba, Maybe even as low as a HIGH CAT 1.  IF the upwelling is not an issue IKE will go back to a CAT 3 or more.