Gustav Will Resemble Katrina; Hannah Will Resemble Andrew
Posted: (August 29, 2008 07:31 pm)

This could be the costliest one two punch in US history. Hurricane Gustav is on course to do some major damage to the Gulf coast. The US models continue to pop this thing in a similar path and intensity to that of Hurricane Katrina that struck New Orleans three years ago. At the same time another storm lurks in the distance. Tropical Storm Hannah is on a collision course with the southern Bahamas and the southern tip of Florida. 

Honestly, at this time im more worried about Hannah than I am Gustav because of the explosive potential that Hannah has. Hannah could become another Hurricane Andrew of 1992. There are a lot of striking similarities with these two storms. For starters the tracks are very similar. Even though Andrew was a Cape Verde storm, it was still in a position almost exactly where Hannah is now. The one difference is Hannah has not been traveling across the Atlantic for days. Another similar feature is how warm the waters are in and around the Bahamas. If you remember, Andrew exploded with 170 mph winds about  24 hours before reaching the islands of the Bahamas. Fortunately it weakened somewhat before striking. Third, what's out there stopping Hannah from intensifying? Give up? NOTHING. There may be a little shearing in the short term but that's about it. As Hannah progresses west it will move into a very favorable environment for intensification.

The only question with Hannah is will the storm track south of the southern tip of Florida like the US models are forecasting. A large high pressure system to the north will be sinking southward down the eastern seaboard. The trend is to take this high and surpress Hannah to the south. Will this happen? Yes, but only to a point. I don't believe right now that Hannah will make a complete left turn like the NHC is currently showing. I think southern Florida (extreme southern Florida) is in the direct path of this one. 

As for Gustav.... dont get me wrong this storm will be a monster as well. But the only way that this storm will be memorable is if it hits one of the major metro areas of the Gulf coast like New Orleans, Mobile, Galveston or Houston. Outside of those areas, most locations are sparsley populated so damage would be kept down. At least in terms of dollars. How many of you out there remember Rita? We all remember it because it happened three years ago. But how many of you out there without looking it up on google can actually remember exactly where it struck and how strong it was when it struck? But we all quickly and easily remember what Katrina did. And this will be a similar situation. If Gustav hits in an area like Katrina did, that is populated then this will more than likely be a very memorable hurricane. If it hits a less populated area than it will be less remembered like Rita is.

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Both storms have the potential to become at least CAT 4's with winds of at least 135 mph. I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens. One thing is for sure, no matter how strong both of these storms are if and when they make landfall in the US, major flooding is going to be a problem. Especially if Hannah does an Andrew. Tropical Storm Fay has already leveled the sunshine state with tremendous amounts of rain. Some 15 to 30 inches fell up and down the eastern portions of the peninsula, through southern Georgia and southern Alabama. Another tropical system moving over the already saturated grounds is really going to aggrevate the situation. Not to mention, the path of Gustav is still somewhat uncertain as well. What's going to happen once it makes landfall?  Will the high pressure east of the Appalachians slow it down and stall it out? Or will it continue to move north along the lower and middle mississippi river valley's? Who know's. But I do knnow this....there will be no more talking about a drought once this hurricane season is all said and done.

If you live along the Gulf coast from New Orleans to Houston continue to monitor Gustav very closely. If you live in southern Florida continue to monitor Hannah very closely.