September 6th, 2008: Week 14 in Review
Posted: (September 07, 2008 07:00 pm)

Week 14 In Review: This was a very busy week for the US coastline! The week started off with the landfall of Hurricane GUSTAV which spared New Orleans from a repeat of KATRINA and ended with the landfall of HANNA and the approach of IKE. Two cyclones also formed in the EPAC with TS LOWELL currently active. Meanwhile the eastern hemisphere remained quiet.

Gustav and Friends: Hurricane GUSTAV dealt a powerful blow to Cuba but spared the US  a devastating landfall. As explained earlier, Cuba disrupted the vertically stacked circulation of GUSTAV. Upper level shear kept GUSTAV from intensifying and GUSTAV made landfall as a Cat. 2 Hurricane in Lousianna. Fortunately, the levees held. HANNA is responsible for around 150 deaths, mainly in Hatti. Now an extratropical cyclone, HANNA caused damage from souther New Hampshire and Maine to Florida. IKE became a Category 4 Hurricane and is now bearing down on Cuba after trashing the southern Bahamas. Finally, JOSEPHINE formed in the eastern Atlantic but degenerated into a remnant low. I give the remnants of JOSEPHINE a 20% chance of redevelopment.

Ike takes a Hike towards Cuba: It appears that Hurricane IKE will spare the Florida Keys from the worst and will instead strike Cuba. The keys have been evacuated and for good reasons since any northward shift in IKE's track would results in hurricane force winds in south Florida. Most models indicate that IKE will spend at least 24 hours near Cuba befire entering the GOMEX. If we get lucky, IKE will also become disorganized and not intensify over the Loop Current. I think IKE looks like a Texas hit. Below, I give my chance of landfall along a certain part of the United States.

Lower Texas Coast (US Border north to Corpus Cristi): 10%
Middle Texas Coast (Corpus Cristi to Freeport): 30%
Upper Texas Coast (Freeport to LA Border): 20%
Western LA Coast: 10%
Eastern LA Coast: 5%
MS or AL: 5%
Florida: 10%
Total Chance of US Landfall: 90%

Next Blog: Tonight I will be back with my review of the season so far and which storms I believe will be retired.