[Offline]
Posted: (September 06, 2008 08:11 am)
Hurricane IKE continues its westward march today and by tomorrow we'll have a better idea of where the storm goes and at what level. As of the 8:00am advisory IKE is still a major hurricane with winds of 115mph. Lets look at the lastest below and show you all the details that go into a forecast.
| Hurricane Ike System Track (2008) | |||||||||
| Adv # | Advisory Date (UTC) |
Name (UTC) |
Position | Direction |
Speed mph (kts) |
Pressure mb (in) |
Winds mph (kts) |
||
| Lat | Lon | ||||||||
|
|
21A | 1200 SAT SEP 06 | Hurricane Ike | 22N | 67.9W | WSW | 16 (14) | 962 (28.41) | 115 (100) |
|
|
21 | 0900 SAT SEP 06 | Hurricane Ike | 22.4N | 67.1W | WSW | 16 (14) | 962 (28.41) | 115 (100) |
|
|
20A | 0600 SAT SEP 06 | Hurricane Ike | 22.5N | 66.1W | WSW | 16 (14) | 962 (28.41) | 115 (100) |
|
|
20 | 0300 SAT SEP 06 | Hurricane Ike | 22.6N | 65.6W | WSW | 16 (14) | 958 (28.29) | 115 (100) |
|
|
19A | 0000 SAT SEP 06 | Hurricane Ike | 22.8N | 64.7W | WSW | 15 (13) | 958 (28.29) | 115 (100) |
|
|
19 | 2100 FRI SEP 05 | Hurricane Ike | 22.9N | 64.1W | WSW | 15 (13) | 958 (28.29) | 115 (100) |
|
|
18 | 1500 FRI SEP 05 | Hurricane Ike | 23.2N | 62.7W | W | 16 (14) | 954 (28.17) | 120 (104) |
The National Hurricane Center track is one that can cause many problems for the keys and the Northern Gulf States. If IKE does not graze CUBA don't expect it to weaken much on its travels through the Straits of Florida. They do want to take this back up to a Category 3 in the GULF and the big X factor could be upwelling from Gustav. What are the water temps just below the surface in the Central Gulf ? That could be the key to whether this is a CAT 1-2 or a CAT 3-4 in the Gulf.
You can see the outer bands and squalls being picked up on San Juan PR radar. By tomorrow we should be in range of the MIAMI doppler. I do think this could be the big storm of the hurricane season. Hurricane IKE history below.
.jpg)
Taking a look at the models above and below you see the track now goes through the Straits of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The track has been all over the place the past few days but now that Hanna is close to Virginia we'll start to see a better consenus of the models. I did think it was going up the East Coast of Florida so my forecast of 4 days ago now may be wrong. It still can make the turn but as this system gets deeper into the tropics the less likely a Mid Latitude system or Hanna will pick it up.
.jpg)
The historical info on Ike now shows a 1947 storm into the Gulf and right over New Orleans. After it crossed FLA it did weaken quite a bit but why ? I looked back to the 1947 season and a system went to the south of the 1947 storm on the map above. It was about 3 weeks before that. So my theory is did the storm before the CAT 5 on on the map above upwell the Gulf. It seems odd to me that a CAT slams South Florida and never recovers in the Gulf. The track would not indicate a front since it moved NW. However, look at the end of the track. Maybe some drier air got into the system.
Texas
Posted: (September 07, 2008 07:55 pm)
It looks like the gulf coast of texas is next.
East coast.
Posted: (September 06, 2008 08:35 am)
Rob, Do you see any chance of Ike still turning up the east coast? Do you think the trough is stong enough in the mid west to help steer Ike northward toward the east coast?
