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robguarino Chief Meteorologist
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FLOODING LIKELY N & W OF BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON D.C., PHILADELPHIA, READING, ALLENTOWN
Posted: (September 05, 2008 10:32 am)

HANNA THIS WEEKEND  
             
CITY LAST GFS GFS NOW LAST NAM NAM NOW MY CALL CONDITIONS/WIND/IMPACT
RALEIGH NC 2.94" 1.02" 2.37" 2.92" 2.50" SQUALLS, RAIN , SOME WIND
WILMINGTON NC .96" 1.58" .71" .50" .88" TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN
CAPE HATTERAS NC .88" 1.00" .70" .63" .84" TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN
RICHMOND VA 2.93" 1.70" 1.94" 2.95" 2.45" WINDS TO 50 MPH, SQUALLS
WASHINGTON DC 1.71" 3.03" 4.33" 5.88" 4.03" FLOODING N&W OF CITY
BALTIMORE MD 1.84" 2.71" 4.63" 6.37" 4.00" FLOODING N&W OF CITY
VIRGINIA BCH VA 1.28" 1.24" .28" 1.24" 1.24" TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN
OCEAN CITY MD 1.21" 1.26" .78" 1.05" 1.22" TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN
REHOBOTH BCH DE 1.16" 1.18" .99" 1.08" 1.09" TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN
DOVER DELAWARE XXXX 1.49" XXXX 1.12" 1.34" 40MPH WINDS, SQUALLS
PHILADELPHIA PA 3.77" 3.73" 2.51" 2.82" 3.34" FLOODING N&W OF CITY
MILLVILLE NJ XXXX 2.12" XXXX .99" 1.89" WINDY WITH SQUALLS, RAIN
ATLANTIC CITY NJ 2.42" 2.48" 1.07" .92" 1.68" TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN
TRENTON NJ 3.65" 3.61" 2.62" 2.43" 3.13" SQUALLS, HEAVY RAIN
BINGHAMTON NY .16" .25" 1.32" .42" .32" OCC. SHOWERS
SCRANTON PA .57" 1.51" 5.68" 4.51" 3.79" HVY RAIN IN SPOTS, SOME FLOODING
READING PA 1.20" 2.98" 5.76" 6.53" 4.99" FLOODING LIKELY
ALLENTOWN PA 1.76" 2.57" 5.01" 7.20" 5.03" FLOODING LIKELY
LANCASTER PA XXXX .67" XXXX 1.11" .97" SQUALLS, SHOWERS
SEASIDE HEIGHTS NJ 2.67" 1.98" 1.26" 1.29" 1.67" TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN
NEW YORK CITY 3.85" 2.11" 1.72" 2.02" 2.04" WINDY WITH SQUALLS, RAIN
WESTERN LONG ISL 3.42" 2.58" 1.06" 1.88" 2.33" WINDY WITH SQUALLS, RAIN
EASTERN LONG ISL 3.54" 3.19" .81" 1.78" 2.58" TROPICAL STRM WINDS, SOME RAIN
NEWARK NJ 3.60" 2.37" 2.08" 2.18" 2.78" WINDY WITH SQUALLS, RAIN
             
OVERALL MINOR IMPACT         MODEL CHANGES BELOW……
OVERALL MODERATE IMPACT         NAM SHOWS INCREASE
OVERALL HIGH IMPACT         IN BALT/DC/ALLENTWN, READING
FLOODING MINOR           GFS LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME
FLOODING MODERATE           OVERALL N & W OF MAJOR
FLOODING HIGH           CITIES WILL HAVE FLOOD PROBLEMS

The NAM has been very good with the track so I'll lean in that direction for several reasons.  It does pick up tropical moisture better in these situations and can dectect topography better due to its grids vs. GFS. It can be overdone a bit so I took the difference of the two models and lean a bit more toward the NAM.  This is a situation that will develop rather quickly Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

If you have basement issues get your stuff to higher ground before Saturday night.  The areas N &W of the cities are the target here so watch for FLASH FLOODING without much warning.  

Winds along the beaches will be 50-60mph with some power outages.  N & W hilly areas could also see some power outages due to soggy ground and loose root systems with trees.





Comments On This Blog Article
Flake
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Slight shift to East
Posted: (September 05, 2008 04:51 pm)

Hello all. I am usually just a lurker because I know nothing about meteorology, but am totally fascinated with weather. I am a nurse by trade. I saw that the National Hurricane Center indicated a slight shift to the East with Hanna. Does that mean heavier rain bands for Phila instead of North and West burbs? Also, I am looking at the front coming in. Is that going to keep Hanna more to the East? Again, I know nothing about promet, but I am slowly learning with all you knowledgeable people around.
 
Sgt_Snow
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Driving lessons
Posted: (September 05, 2008 04:10 pm)

I KNOW I"M PREACHING TO THE CHIOR Please head all warnings not to drive through standing water. It is unsafe and flooded roadways contain numerous hazards. As a police officer I have had to participate in rescues of motorist convinced their vehicle (SUV's included) could "make it." Take it from me the risk is not worth it. Try another route. Please DO NOT move barricades (people do this). They are there because an experienced police officer, road crew or fire department had determined a roadway was flooded or is in immediate danger of being flooded. I have seen a passable road flood in two minutes. If you move a barricade and get stuck you have risked your life and now require others to risk theirs to rescue you. Additionally you may be arrested because most people who move the barricade don't stop to replace it and others following could be endangered. The few minutes saved are not worth the risk to your life, the lives of others, or the cost in fines if your caught moving a barricade.
 
RSmitty
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You Included Mid-DE! WOO! Thanks!
Posted: (September 05, 2008 02:26 pm)

Question, though...I see your Dover and Rehoboth forecasts are significantly less than, say...Philly. Would that be because to the west and northwest of down there is fairly flat all the way until basically VA and Western MD? Going further, I live near Odessa, DE and there aren't hills of significant elevation until you get pretty far up into the far reaches of Newark and then Chester County. Would it be safe to say my area would likely remain under 2"? I understand there can be pockets of significant rainfall, but the amount is important to me, because I am surrounded by fairly low-laying geography (the Appoquinink River, Drawyers Creek and various marshes abound here, not to mention the DE River to the east). Thanks!
 
TimF
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Thanks
Posted: (September 05, 2008 01:48 pm)

Thanks. I live in Sinking Spring (just west of Reading)and the last tropical storm that hit I got water in the basement. I am now going to check the sump pump. You are the man!!!!! Can't wait for the Winter Outlook!!!!
 
robguarino
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Tim....
Posted: (September 05, 2008 01:39 pm)

I think stations wait for the last minute and I think they are looking at the GFS. They see the lower GFS numbers and do not buy into the NAM. This happens often with tropical systems and tropical moisture is OFTEN underdone in these storms north of North Carolina. I just call it as I see it and want to warn people of the potential. My motto is better safe than sorry. Good luck
 
qVx0B4aA
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Thanks!
Posted: (September 05, 2008 01:07 pm)

I apreciate the extra info!
 
TimF
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Question
Posted: (September 05, 2008 01:07 pm)

Hi Rob- I have 100% faith in your call for Reading but I was wandering why no other weather outlet is calling for 5 inches of Rain in Reading. Thanks
 
robguarino
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Lehigh Valley starts...early Saturday morning
Posted: (September 05, 2008 12:41 pm)

Starts early Saturday morning and ends Sunday by noon...It's a quick mover but when it comes down it will be hard. Good luck with Hanna and safe travels
 
qVx0B4aA
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Questions from a newbie
Posted: (September 05, 2008 11:04 am)

Rob, I love the site, been visting since last Winter. I live in the Lehigh Valley and see your rainfall amount predictions. My question is when is the approx start and end? I'm supposed to leave for a vacation in the Outer Banks of North Carolina early Sunday AM. I've been watching your thoughts on Ike as well. My next question is am I wasting my time and $ going down there this week?
 
 
 
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