HURRICANE IKE TRACK POINTS TO MIAMI AND SOUTH FLORIDA 8:30pm update
Posted: (September 04, 2008 08:06 pm)

Hurricane IKE is still a very powerful system and as it slides WSW under the new HIGH we'll see a few changes.  It is getting closer to Hanna's circulation and we'll see this probaly stay in the low to mid CAT 3 range for the next few days.  The models are taking this a little futher south in the last few runs.  I still think this makes the turn NW and misses Florida, but again this is far out so things could and will change.

Hurricane Ike System Track (2008)   view table
Adv #		Advisory Date (UTC)	Name (UTC)	Position		Direction	Speed mph (kts)	Pressure mb (in)	Winds mph (kts)
				Lat	Lon
	15	2100 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	23.6N	58.2W	WNW	14 (12)	945 (27.91)	135 (117)
	14	1500 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	23.2N	57W	WNW	16 (14)	938 (27.7)	140 (122)
	13	0900 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	22.7N	55.8W	WNW	17 (15)	935 (27.61)	145 (126)
	12	0300 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	22.1N	54.1W	WNW	17 (15)	948 (27.99)	135 (117)
	11	0000 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	21.7N	53.2W	WNW	18 (16)	960 (28.35)	115 (100)
	10	2100 WED SEP 03	Hurricane Ike	21.6N	52.7W	WNW	18 (16)	984 (29.06)	80 (69)
	9	1500 WED SEP 03	Tropical Storm Ike	20.8N	51.2W	WNW	18 (16)	991 (29.26)	70 (61)

SHEAR TENDENCY FOR HURRICANE IKE............



It will be interesting to see if the shear drops off to the SW of IKE in the next 24-36 hours.  This will drop off the intensity a bit if this does occur.  Check back tomorrow to see if the shear drops off in front of IKE.

STEERING CURRENT LOWER LEVELS....




I am still amazed if this pans out.  Look at the circulation of Hanna on the map above, it digs all the way down to the Western Carribean.  Also look at the dip in the middle part of the US. That is a long wave trough that pulls winds SW ans would steer IKE north.  Yeah I know that Hanna will keep that trough at bay but it just amazes me that that the models are taking this due west after the short SW jog.
 
STEERING CURRENT UPPER LEVELS..........



Ok so this the upper level envirnoment and Hanna sticks out as the circulation ahead of IKE would take this north.  Again looking at the upper levels it's hard for me to buy into the westward track on the models at this hour.

MY THINKING AT THIS POINT.....

Ike will be an interesting storm in so many ways.  I think the upwelling of Hanna over the Bahamas could weaken the storm as it gets closer to the Florida coast.  That will be an "X" FACTOR on the intensity models.  The influence of Hanna is not even being taken into consideration on the models except for the possible shear tomorrow.  I will stick with the miss of the Florida Coast at this point.  Why ? Simply because this far out the models may miss this connection.  Yeah granted by the weekend Hanna is long gone in the Maritimes but before that does it grab IKE in any way shape or form ? 

I'll keep my thinking to bring IKE to the Bahamas but turn northward up near the coast of FLA kinda like what Floyd did back in 1999.  We have plenty of time to watch this so long term tracks can and will be adjusted.