POWERFUL HURRICANE IKE REMAINS A CATEGORY 4, EAST COAST HIT CHANCES INCREASE
Posted: (September 04, 2008 12:33 pm)

Taking a look at the latest satellite of Hurricane IKE and you see that this is a legimate Category 4 Hurricane at this hour.  It did look like it might have slipped a little this morning but the outflow and dynamics are excellent at this hour.  As the storm switches from the influence of the HIGH for the Northeast to the HIGH sliding off the East Coast we'll see a change in the track a bit.  It should start to dip back under the HIGH and go from Northwest steering to a West and Southwest steering.  This would keep this system from turning up and away from the US Coast, at least in the short term forecast.  More on the long term track of IKE below under the models graphics.

Hurricane Ike System Track (2008)
Adv #		Advisory Date (UTC)	Name (UTC)	Position		Direction	Speed mph (kts)	Pressure mb (in)	Winds mph (kts)
				Lat	Lon
	14	1500 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	23.2N	57W	WNW	16 (14)	938 (27.7)	140 (122)
	13	0900 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	22.7N	55.8W	WNW	17 (15)	935 (27.61)	145 (126)
	12	0300 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	22.1N	54.1W	WNW	17 (15)	948 (27.99)	135 (117)
	11	0000 THU SEP 04	Hurricane Ike	21.7N	53.2W	WNW	18 (16)	960 (28.35)	115 (100)
	10	2100 WED SEP 03	Hurricane Ike	21.6N	52.7W	WNW	18 (16)	984 (29.06)	80 (69)
	9	1500 WED SEP 03	Tropical Storm Ike	20.8N	51.2W	WNW	18 (16)	991 (29.26)	70 (61)
	8	0900 WED SEP 03	Tropical Storm Ike	20.6N	49.6W	WNW	18 (16)	996 (29.41)	65 (56)

The official track above shows the dip to the Southwest by the weekend. After that it gets more complicated.  The HIGH may slide further east and slide this north.  We may also see a trough in the Midwest that could turn this system up the coast.  The intensity forecast should remain at 3-4 since it will benefit from a HIGH from the north which acts as excellent outflow for a hurricane.  

MODELS SHOW WHAT FUTURE FOR POWERFUL IKE..............





Looking over the models the ending period is catching my attention at this hour.  See the curve that all the models take on the graphic above !  I do think this occurs but sooner than some of the models have it.  I lean toward the HWRF-GFS-UKMET solution of not taking this as far south and curving it a little sooner.  Climatology shows once again this is what these systems typically do off a departing HIGH and a trough in the East or Midwest.  If I had to make a real real early call it would be North Carolina getting another landfall hit off IKE.  

I typically do not like to make a call over a week out so Im just giving you my feeling on the dynamics of the atmosphere next week.



The historical map shows that only 2 hurricanes have made the East Coast.  Isabel in 2003 and the looper Esther in 1961.  It's September, mid September by later next week, bank on a trough/front to be in the Midwest and that HIGH to slide just enough east to bring IKE up the coast.  I am a big believer of climatology and where and when systems are in September.  Again this is my gut feeling right now not a National Hurricane Center forecast.

SHEER TENDENCY FOR IKE....



You can see the shear to the direct west of IKE is dropping.  The Shear to the SW of IKE should drop off in 2 days so the envirnoment for IKE should be ok to maintain a Category 3 or 4 into this weekend.

STEERING PATTERN FOR HURRICANE IKE (LOWER LEVELS)\



The steering pattern shows that the BIG HIGH to the Northeast of IKE will move away, this has been a huge player in getting IKE to a Category 4.  The next HIGH is off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and will allow IKE to move SW or WSW for a few days going into this weekend.  After that it's a tough call where all the fronts and HIGHS will line up.

MY THINKING ON IKE AT THIS POINT.......................

I do like the SW or WSW curve but not a dramatic curve like some of the models.  I do think this heads into the Bahamas region as a Category 3 or 4.  I also think that people along the Florida East Coast will get itchy like they did with Floyd in 1999.  IKE will feel the influence of the departing HIGH to it's NE and a mid latitude trough in the Midwest.  This will pull IKE NW than Nortward into the infamous North Carolina Coast.  This will look like the Floyd track after this weekend and should make it's way up the coast.  It's still early in the game to say at what level does IKE hit the Carolina coast but think of it somewhere between Bertha and Fran in the Wilmington NC area.