TROPICAL STORM HANNA--A U.S. EAST COAST HIT ?
Posted: (August 29, 2008 08:04 am)

Tropical Storm Hanna looks bigger in size than Gustav this morning.  Part of that reason is its over open waters and does not have Cuba and Jamaica to deal with as far as friction with land.   The Ridge or High moving into and through Texas will be a player for this storm as we head into the weekend.  The models are still painting an interesting end result for this storm.  

System Track (2008)   view table
Adv #		Advisory Date (UTC)	Name (UTC)	Position		Direction	Speed mph (kts)	Pressure mb (in)	Winds mph (kts)
				Lat	Lon
	5	0900 FRI AUG 29	Tropical Storm Hanna	21.7N	62.3W	NW	14 (12)	1000 (29.53)	50 (43)
	4	0300 FRI AUG 29	Tropical Storm Hanna	21.1N	60.6W	WNW	7 (6)	1000 (29.53)	50 (43)
	3	2100 THU AUG 28	Tropical Storm Hanna	20.7N	60.1W	WNW	12 (10)	1003 (29.62)	40 (35)
	2	1500 THU AUG 28	Tropical Storm Hanna	20.5N	59.2W	WNW	12 (10)	1002 (29.59)	40 (35)
	1	0900 THU AUG 28	Tropical Depression Eight	19.8N	57.9W	WNW	5 (4)	1004 (29.65)	35 (30)

 

Looking at the models above we see that the track dips SW after a few days.  This is due to High Pressure sliding east and depressing the system south.  The weak torugh or front moving through the US looks to have no impact on picking up Hanna and the steering is weak.  Florida residents need to keep an eye on this system as it gets closer to the Bahamas by later weekend and mid next week.

DIRECT HIT-HANNA BY CITY % CHANCE
CITY	HIT	CATEGORY	DAMAGE
NASSAU BAHAMAS	50%	1
FREEPORT BAHAMAS	48%	2
SAN JUAN P.R.	30%	2
PORT AU PRINCE	32%	2
ST MARTIN	29%	2
ST THOMAS	30%	2
MIAMI FL	33%	2
DAYTONA BCH FL	32%	1
JACKSONVILLE FL	31%	1
SAVANNAH GA	30%	1
CHARLESTON SC	28%	1
MYRTLE BCH SC	25%	1
HATTERAS NC	22%	1
VIRGINIA BCH VA	20%	1
OCEAN CITY MD	10%	1
REHOBOTH BCH DE	8%	0
CAPE MAY NJ	6%	0
HAVANA CUBA	8%	3
KEY WEST FL	12%	3
90% or HIGHER
75-89% CHANCE
51-75% CHANCE
25-50% CHANCE
0-25% CHANCE

A Direct is defined as the "eye" crossing within 25 miles of the location