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Posted: (June 23, 2008 12:48 pm)
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The parameters as stated in Chris Sowers blog are really dependent on the sunshine and dew points. I do see the sun clearing by 12noon west of Lancaster and after 12:30pm for Philly metro and east. Below are the parameters for several mid atlantic cities.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS (MON. 6/23)
CITY
LIFTING
CAPE
SHW
SWEAT
HELICITY
DEW POINT
GUST (mph)
SEVERE WX
BOSTON
-2.5
435
-0.4
200
70
66
38
NO
HARTFORD
-3.8
1125
-0.6
208
38
64
45
NO
NYC
-5.0
1263
-2.1
237
41
67
50
SLIGHT
PHILLY
-5.8
1492
-1.4
206
33
68
53
POSSIBLE
ALLENTOWN
-5.1
1594
-2.6
262
90
65
51
POSSIBLE
PITT
-2.4
947
-1.8
241
53
59
51
SLIGHT
BALT
-5.1
2673
-2.7
248
71
67
54
LIKELY
WILM DE
-5.7
1573
-1.6
210
21
68
53
POSSIBLE
DC METRO
-5.0
2394
-2.9
256
57
67
54
LIKELY
RICHMOND
-4.9
1368
-2.9
258
109
67
55
POSSIBLE
RALEIGH NC
-4.4
1432
-2.0
213
40
68
55
POSSIBLE
LIGHT BLUE-NO PARAMETER FOR SEVERE WEATHER
YELLOW-SOME T-STORMS LIKELY
ORANGE-STRONG T-STORMS
RED-SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY
PURPLE-TORNADIC ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
EXTREME PARAMETERS-TORNADO LIKELY
I really don't think there is a risk of severe weather today in Boston, Hartford and Providence. The rest of New England also looks low as the CAPE and Helicity are not even close to severe range. The chances of severe weather are further south.
Looking over the new NAM Computer model just in I do think the best chance of severe weather is from Baltimore South to Richmond VA. We could see some isolated storms on the severe side in Baltimore, Philadelphia, Wilmington, Millville and the NJ/DE beaches.
